Katherine Nichols – 天美视频 /author/knichols/ 天美视频 - Investigative Reporting Mon, 06 Mar 2017 01:35:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 UPDATE: Property Taxes And Local Culture /2010/05/1008-property-taxes-and-local-culture/ Thu, 13 May 2010 03:34:44 +0000 What happens to local families with multiple homes on one property if the non-homeowner tax rate rises?

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Fifty percent of Honolulu residents are renters, and if the non-homeowner property tax rate goes up, these costs will be passed along to many of these people 鈥 often the very ones least able to afford price increases. Mayor Mufi Hannemann‘s proposed budget calls for a hike to $3.72 per $1,000 of assessed value, which would generate $18 million to address the city’s budget shortfall. But City Council member Ikaika Anderson says that would unfairly tax local families who live on multihome properties. His wants to keep the rate under $3.50 鈥 higher than the existing $3.42 rate for homeowners, but not much.

“A lot of our local people here do live in multigenerational households,” explained Anderson. Many own their homes along with a second house on the property for elderly parents, and this thrusts them into the non-homeowner category, which is primarily intended to target wealthier absentee owners with second or third homes.

But there’s logic to the mayor’s proposal, said city spokesman Bill Brennan. Local residents who have owned homes for decades have watched their property values soar as their retirement income remains steady, and they can’t afford to have homeowner rates continually rising. “This non-homeowner category allows the city to generate more revenue without touching the homeowner class. Those guys don’t want their property taxes touched.”

For more details on the city budget discussed Wednesday at the City Council meeting, read the .

To share your thoughts on property taxes and Honolulu’s high rents, join the money discussion.

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Why Growing A Business In Hawaii Is Challenging /2010/05/933-why-growing-a-business-in-hawaii-is-challenging/ Tue, 11 May 2010 08:42:34 +0000 Honolulu Coffee Co. owner Ed Schultz talks about the challenges of growing a business in Hawaii 鈥 and how it means consumers pay higher prices.

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Honolulu Coffee Co. owner Ed Schultz talks about the challenges of doing business in Hawaii 鈥斅燼nd how it makes everything more expensive for the consumer.

Since he bought the company in early 2008, the 34-year-old has supplemented his six stores in Hawaii with a location in Guam (and a second opening in July), and is in the process of completing construction on a new 6,000-square-foot warehouse, training center, roasting facility and bakery on Sand Island. He employs 83 people.

Civil Beat: What is the nature of your business?

Ed Schultz: We serve fresh, seasonal coffees, and want our Kona blends to taste the same in March and in October two years from now. For each coffee we put in our blends, we pay a premium and know what the farmers are doing with the money, how they treat their workers and how they take care of their land. Last year we bought 90,000 pounds of coffee 鈥 45,000 from Hawaii. We have higher quality coffee, and are not interested in offering the 24-ounce Big Gulp. The idea is less is more.

Will you describe your company’s growth in the past two and a half years?

In 2008, we saw revenues decrease about 7 percent. So at the end of the year, we decided to scrap our business plan and look at what we could do to increase revenues without spending capital. So we did our first wholesale deals at St. Regis Princeville, Trump, Whole Foods and DFS. We also had a bakery, so I thought, what can I do with this? We hired two pastry chefs, and got into the wedding cake business. Total revenues went up 23 percent, putting us 16 percent ahead of where we bought [both businesses].

What’s the most popular item in your expanding bakery business

Our macaroons have hit the street and are becoming all the rage. It’s the new cupcake in Hawaii. It’s a smaller, less guilty indulgence that’s harder to make.

What are some of the specific challenges related to growing a business in Hawaii?

One is the shipping of goods to Hawaii. For me to go door-to-door from our roasting company in Honolulu to our coffee bar in Maui, the price per pound in shipping is the same as if it were coming from the east coast of the United States. Shipping a case of cups from California went up 11 percent from last year because of freight, port surcharges and fuel surcharges. Then there are delays that stop construction until the appropriate part comes in 鈥 sometimes three weeks late.

There are no global financial or insurance institutions in Hawaii. Coming from the mainland, the hardest part was that you couldn’t use any organization that you’d used before. On the mainland, you have banks doing cash flow loans, and here you’re constantly trying to operate a new business with limited physical assets because they don’t want make the loan. In the end, we found a bank, but it was a nine-month process.

Hawaii also has always had a unique healthcare system. If someone works 20 hours a week, you’re obligated to provide health insurance. There isn’t an independent restaurant on the mainland that does that. Only 1.5 percent of an employee’s earnings are allowed to be taken out of a paycheck to offset healthcare costs. On the mainland, 25 to 50 percent is reimbursed by the employee. Obviously, it makes the cost of doing business more expensive.

What do these issues mean for consumers?

Higher prices. Look at milk. If milk is two and a half times higher than in California, and shipping prices continue to rise, a latte is going to be that much more expensive.

Where do you see Honolulu Coffee Co. going?

The plan was always to grow from international licensing deals to a market in Asia that’s still developing. You have tea drinking countries that are converting to coffee, so you have a demographic shift. Obviously, China is a huge opportunity. But first, we’re progressing pretty actively with Japan. Then we’ll look at Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. We would use the growth from Asia to fund more company-owned stores here in Hawaii.

What kinds of policy changes would you suggest for Hawaii?

Instigate a district General Excise Tax 鈥 in Waikiki, for instance. I think taxing local business and taxing local residents is not the way to make Hawaii more sustainable. I think you need to tax the people who consume the most, and that’s the visitors to the islands. You’d be amazed at how fast you could fix the budget problem. You can’t keep taking away and make it special. At some point, you have to grow responsibly.

Does Hawaii have any unique attributes that translate into business advantages?

From a business manager’s perspective, I’ve become more accepting of a work/life balance. I think Hawaii opens your eyes to that. You want to spend time outside. You want to spend time with your family. I think that’s a great thing when you’re trying to get people to move here.

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UPDATE: City Operating expenses keep climbing 鈥 despite downturn /2010/05/923-update-city-operating-expenses-keep-climbing-despite-downturn/ Tue, 11 May 2010 00:48:08 +0000 An ongoing look into city expenditures

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In an effort to learn more about the growth of Honolulu’s government during Mayor Mufi Hannemann‘s tenure, we’re looking at city budget documents from 2004 through 2010.

Since Hanneman’s tenure began in 2005, the number of employees has grown by 455, while total operating expenditures have increased $339 million, a 39 percent increase.

An overview of total operating expenditures (by fiscal year and by department), and the number of full-time equivalent positions that money paid for:

  • 2004: $798 million for 9,972 positions
  • 2005: $861 million for 9,992 positions
  • 2006: $910 million for 10,081 positions
  • 2007: $970 million for 10,181 positions
  • 2008: $1.1 billion for 10,319 positions
  • 2009: $1.15 billion for 10,373 positions
  • 2010: $1.2 billion for 10,447 positions

Obviously, inflation should be factored in, but the numbers are striking. How does the city keep spending more money?

As we explore this in more detail, we’ll compare Honolulu with other cities, and break down these disbursements. Meanwhile, take a look at the budget documents, linked below, for yourself.

Join the discussion about money and the city’s economy.

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If Hawaii Doesn’t Pay Now, Will It Have To Pay More Later? /2010/05/797-if-hawaii-doesnt-pay-now-will-it-have-to-pay-more-later/ Fri, 07 May 2010 08:07:24 +0000 A decision to defer $593 million in tax credits to help deal with the state's budget deficit may have saved programs from cuts in the short term, but could hurt the state financially for years to come.

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The state made a promise to investors.

Then when the going got tough 鈥 a $1.2 billion deficit 鈥 lawmakers decided that they did not mean what they said.

Now, with a controversial bill on Gov. Linda Lingle‘s desk that would save the state hundreds of millions over the next three years, a number of questions hang in the balance:

  • Is it legal for a government to renege on its word when it comes to a promise to investors?
  • If it is, what are the ramifications for future administrations 鈥 and taxpayers 鈥 if this one decides to do just that?
  • If the answer to the first question is in doubt, is the cost of deferring the credits more burdensome than paying up now?

And those, in many ways, are the easy questions.

The larger question, one that isn’t even on the table at this point, is whether the state of Hawaii gave away too much in 2001 when it promised investors 100 percent tax credits on investments in new tech companies. A tax credit allows investors to charge their investments in certain companies against income taxes they would otherwise owe the state.

“If you’re a bond rating agency, how are you going to look at this?” asked Jeff Au, managing director and general counsel of PacifiCap Group, a Honolulu venture capital firm. “How financially responsible is the state acting? My concern is that some companies are going to run out of money. And it’s going to cement this perception that Hawaii is a bad place to invest.”

This story started in the 1999, when Hawaii hungered to diversify its economy. The answer: Lure investors with lucrative tax benefits. But the initial offering limited the tax credit to 10 percent of the investment. By 2001, an amended law allowed investors to claim 100 percent of an investment 鈥 up to $2 million 鈥 in a high technology firm over five years (35 percent the first year, 25 percent the second year, 20 percent the third and 10 percent in the fourth and fifth years). In 2009, the law was amended again to limit credits to 80 percent of the tax liability.

The original intent of the refined , also known as the high-tech tax credit, was to ignite investments in high-technology companies. These include development and design of computer software, biotechnology, performing arts products (i.e. movie or television productions) and non-fossil fuel energy-related technology, among others. More than 4,000 investors helped fund 203 Qualified High Tech Businesses (QHTB) through 2008. These companies created 1,619 jobs, and employed 2,840 independent contractors, according to the state .

The total cost in lost tax revenue to the through 2008 was about $776 million, and the number of additional credits that could still be claimed amounts to $593 million.

Act 221 faced enough controversy in its first few years to compel the state Department of Taxation to defend it in a 2003 .

Then this year the Legislature decided the program had to end 鈥 and that it couldn’t make good on its part of the deal until 2013, delaying the benefits it had promised for three years.

“The Legislature finds that due to the dismal state budget situation, there is a compelling public interest for the early termination of tax credits that result in significant tax expenditures,” reads . It repeals the tax credits prior to the original sunset date of Dec. 31, 2010, effective May 1, 2011. And people who invested in recent years under the belief that they would receive tax breaks every year must wait three years, until 2013, to receive their credits.

The response from investors? Threats of lawsuits. Au said his company already has hired a Washington, D.C. law firm to pursue litigation.

That’s where the news gets worse for the state. The prospect of lawsuits could become a fiscal burden in itself. Under the , the state must respond to such action by segregating the funds originally intended for tax credits. Instead of going into the General Fund to pay for the state’s operating costs, they must go into a “litigated claims fund,” and can’t be withdrawn until the lawsuit is settled, making the money unavailable, essentially, to both parties.

Gov. Linda Lingle‘s office said she was in the process of “reviewing bills and getting public input.” She has until July 6 to veto the proposals.

The state’s reversal of its promise to honor the tax credits is far more damaging than the economy itself, said Dew-Anne Langcaon, president and co-founder of , a company with five employees that is developing touchscreen wireless technology to aid senior citizens and decrease eldercare expenses. “The uncertainty which this bill has caused is making it impossible for our current and potential new investors to make an informed investment decision.”

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UPDATE: City Says It Did Not Violate Procurement Law /2010/05/788-update-city-says-it-did-not-violate-procurement-law/ Fri, 07 May 2010 03:16:16 +0000 Mayor Mufi Hannemann calls a press conference to address allegations that the city violated procurement law in awarding contracts 鈥 and then doesn't show up.

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Allegations by former Hawaii Gov. Ben Cayetano that Honolulu violated procurement law are “so obviously political, it’s not even funny,” city spokesman Bill Brennan told reporters at Honolulu Hale Thursday afternoon. The mayor did not attend the press conference.

Mayor Mufi Hannemann had called a press conference to respond to an in the Honolulu Advertiser about the city possibly awarding design contracts 鈥 including some related to the Honolulu rail project 鈥 without following proper bidding procedures.

The original complaint, filed with the state attorney general’s office and the U.S. attorney’s office two weeks ago on behalf of Cayetano and others, claims the city did not negotiate with the top-ranked bidder in each case. But city spokesman Bill Brennan said this was untrue. Bidders are listed on the city’s website in alphabetical order, not in ranking order, which City Budget Director and Chief Procurement Officer Rix Maurer said might have caused confusion.

The complaint also claimed that the three-bidder requirement to create a competitive environment was waived in several instances. Brennan said allow the awarding of contracts when less than three qualified people or organizations submit proposals.

An audit in 2009 found that all three rail transit contracts in question complied with procurement requirements. Brennan confirmed that procurement records are public information and available for inspection.

Join the discussion on the Money page.

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UPDATE: Rail Consultants 鈥 Who Are They Now? /2010/05/781-update-rail-consultants-who-are-they-now/ Fri, 07 May 2010 02:11:04 +0000 City Council's transportation committee wants updated financial information on the $5.3 billion rail project 鈥 including a current list of contractors receiving taxpayer dollars because it says it doesn't understand what some are doing.

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Transportation director Wayne Yoshioka drew fire from the City Council’s transportation committee for what the council perceived as a lack of transparency related to rail expenditures. The committee passed a resolution Thursday requesting that city officials provide updated information about rapid transit contractors and subcontractors, along with their qualifications and job descriptions.

Council member Ann Kobayashi questioned why millions of dollars have been spent on a small number of individuals or groups for “public outreach” or “public involvement.”

“We are completely transparent on this issue,” countered Yoshioka. “We’re under scrutiny from the Federal Transit Administration.” Yoshioka defended the city’s multiyear contracts, and said they included the consultants’ expenses. He also indicated he would provide an updated list for the council.

From April 2007 to Nov. 2009, the individuals or organizations receiving city funds for public outreach or involvement included:

  • Lychee Productions, Inc: $1.4 million (also listed as a subconsultant and paid an extra $201,000 for public involvement)
  • Elisa Yadao: $285,000 (also listed as a subconsultant and paid an extra $80,000 for public involvement)
  • Community Planning & Engineering: $374,000
  • Pat Lee & Associates: $217,000
  • Douglas Carlson: $210,000
  • R & R Partners, Inc. $137,500
  • Gary Omori: $181,000
  • AccuCopy Consulting Group: $126,000
  • John DeSoto: $150,000
  • Red Monarch Communications: $109,000
  • Lyon Associates: $14,000
  • KAI Hawiaii: $4,000

Share your opinions on Civil Beat’s Honolulu page.

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UPDATE: City Council Demands More Financial Details About Rail Plan /2010/05/730-update-city-council-demands-more-financial-details-about-rail-plan/ Wed, 05 May 2010 21:52:30 +0000 Insufficient information sparks further inquiry into the financials for the largest capital project in city's history

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The City Council’s transportation committee is demanding more detail about the city’s financial plan for the Honolulu High-Capacity Transit Corridor Project, a topic we’ll be exploring in a story tomorrow.

“We want to know the financials,” explained Council member Romy Cachola. “What’s the funding for the first, second and third segments? What are the timelines? If they have $5 and spent $2, what did they spend it on?” The committee suspects revenues may fall short, and believes information from the city has been insufficient.

As of Wednesday morning, nobody had signed up to testify. But the public is invited to comment on the , which asks for specific explanations regarding the rail project’s revenues and expenditures. The meeting takes place at 9 a.m. Thursday at Honolulu Hale. .

Meanwhile, we invite you to join the ongoing discussion about rail.

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No Strings on Tourism Tax, A “Double-Edge Sword” For Counties /2010/05/599-no-strings-on-tourism-tax-a-double-edge-sword-for-counties/ Sun, 02 May 2010 06:28:26 +0000 State has been siphoning off larger and larger amount of revenue from tax on lodging because counties can't point specifically to what it pays for. But they know losing it would be a huge blow.

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The tax doesn’t touch locals.

But it’s so important to Hawaii’s counties that the state’s four mayors were willing to sit for hours in the Legislature during budget proceedings just to remind lawmakers of what it means to them 鈥 and the people they represent.

They successfully fended off attempts this year to take the revenue from the Transient Accommodations Tax, but the fight revealed why the tax is vulnerable and how important it has become to continuing the daily services provided by Hawaii counties.

One of the reasons the money is vulnerable is because it’s not reserved for specific uses.

“The money goes to the counties without strings,” said Murray Towill, president of the Hawaii Hotel and Lodging Association, a statewide organization representing 80 percent of all lodging units in the islands.

The 8.25 percent (soon to be 9.25 percent) tax is charged on all units rented for fewer than 180 days. Approximately 45 percent of the tax collected, or $90 million, goes to the four counties. That may sound good today. But when the tax began in 1990, the counties got 95 percent of the total. Also, the counties are limited to a percentage of the 7.25 percent tax rate. Everything collected above that goes directly to the state.

The tax was born out of a dispute over who should bear the burden of tourism. Visitors come to Hawaii and use the beaches, parks and other public facilities that taxpayers sustain. The was meant to force visitors staying in any hotel or short-term rental property to pay a tax the state would collect and then redistribute to the four counties. The formula redistribution was arbitrary, said Andrew Kato, a specialist with the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.

“Prior to the start of January 1993 legislative session, the director of the Department of Budget and Finance proposed upping the state’s share of the Transient Accommodation Tax (TAT) from 5 percent to 30 percent, something that would have cost the counties millions of dollars in revenue, without providing relief from existing responsibilities,” Richard C. Pratt wrote in his
“Hawaii Politics and Government: An American State in a Pacific World.”

And thus began the creeping takeover of the tax by the state, and the effort to cap the revenues going to the counties, leaving any gains beyond those limits to the state.

Now, Honolulu receives 44.1 percent of the counties’ share of the tax. The counties receive 44.8 percent of the total TAT, or $94.3 million 鈥 whichever is less. For fiscal year 2011, which begins in July, Honolulu’s share is expected to be nearly $41 million of a $1.8 billion operating budget. The island of Hawaii’s $18 million chunk is 18.6 percent of the counties’ share, and is the second largest revenue source in the Big Island budget. Kauai’s 14.5 percent share will amount to $12 million in 2011 鈥 8 percent of its entire general fund budget. Maui gets 22.8 percent of the tax. In 2011, this could amount to $17.5 million, or 33 percent of Maui county’s budget. After property taxes, the TAT is the largest source of general fund revenues for operations on Maui.

Losing the TAT as a source of revenue would have forced counties to make massive cuts in programs or increased taxes, placing the burden on local residents to make up the difference. Instead, the legislature in 2009 raised the tax to 9.25 percent and put a heavier burden on the lodging industry and tourists.

“The TAT… certainly helps to defray the cost of the wide array of services we provide for our tourists and the visitor industry,” Mayor Mufi Hannemann wrote in a letter to Rep. Marcus Oshiro, chairman of the House Finance Committee. “And tourists certainly tax our community’s infrastructure 鈥 roadways, solid waste disposal system, and wastewater system.”

In addition, 4,327 victims of crime 鈥 approximately 7 percent 鈥 were visitors. The cost of operating District 6 in Waikiki, which serves visitors primarily, is about $12 million per year. The Honolulu Fire Department estimates it spends $1.3 annually to serve tourists and the tourism industry through inspections and thousands of responses.

If just $1 million were taken from the Ocean Safety Division’s budget, the division would lose 34 positions 鈥 possibly eliminating lifeguard services at Waikiki beach, Hannemann’s letter said. The city estimates that 6,000 people use Ala Moana and Kapiolani parks daily. Seventy-five percent of those users are visitors.

Counties are desperate to hang onto this revenue because it’s much more difficult for them to raise revenue than it is for the state, said Andrew Kato, a Specialist with the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.

“For the state to raise $90 million is not that hard,” he said. “If you raise the General Excise Tax one-sixth of 1 percent, you would have generated almost the same amount of money,” he said of attempts to take all the TAT.

“It’s a way to push down the problem to someone else’s plate, and the counties have fewer tools to deal with it,” said David Carey, president and CEO of Outrigger Enterprises Group, the parent company of Outrigger Hotels & Resorts.

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Rent or Buy? Not An Easy Question in Honolulu /2010/05/580-rent-or-buy-not-an-easy-question-in-honolulu/ Sun, 02 May 2010 00:43:37 +0000 Even though Hawaii is the most expensive state in the nation for renters 鈥 and Honolulu ranks third among cities 鈥 house prices in the city are so steep it may still make more sense not to buy.

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Hawaii is the most expensive state in the country in which to rent – and Honolulu ranks third among cities – according to a recent study by the .

Yet it still could make more financial sense for people in Honolulu to rent rather than buy, according to one national analysis of buying vs. renting a home of similar value.

What’s known as the Price of Paradise puts people here in a double whammy: whichever way they turn prices may seem high. While it may be less financially burdensome to rent, some fear that if they don’t get into the housing market, they’ll be left behind, and never be able to own 鈥 or enjoy the hoped-for benefits of ballooning values.

But a recent analysis of buying vs. renting found that Honolulu has the country’s second highest “rent ratio”: the purchase price of a house divided by the annual cost of renting a similar one. A ratio above 20, according to columnist David Leonhardt, means people should at least consider renting, particularly if they plan to move within five years. When it’s under 20, buying tends to make more sense.

So what was Honolulu’s number? Thirty-four. In the nation’s largest cities 鈥 including New York, Chicago and Los Angeles 鈥 the average was 16.

Once the numbers reach 25 or 30, it’s a sign that there could be a housing price bubble, Thomas Lys, an accounting professor at Northwestern University, told the Times.

“Hawaii has been traditionally higher because you have a finite marketplace, and there’s always been pressure on the government to keep a lot of properties agricultural,” said Stephany Sofos, a real estate consultant and analyst. “Land has always been controlled and expensive. And because Hawaii is so beautiful and everyone wants to live here, you have guaranteed growth.”

Housing prices soared in Honolulu over the past decade, with the average sale price reaching a peak of $770,000 in 2007, and hitting a trough of $645,000 in 2009, according to a report from the . The 16 percent decline on Oahu was far less than the 40 percent drop some of the neighbor islands experienced.

The neighbor islands, infused with overseas money, were clearly in a bubble, said Byron Gangnes, Director of the Hawaii Forecast Project for UHERO. Though Oahu has seen prices drop, he would not place it in the same category. He credits the overall economic recovery for recent gains in house prices.

Gangnes said: “But we still have a large number of foreclosures, and that’s going to weigh on prices,” which UHERO predicted won’t rise significantly until 2012 and beyond. Overall, the affordability that existed early in the decade has vanished and rising housing prices, while good for established owners, has put more pressure on renters.

The for a two-bedroom dwelling in Honolulu is $1704. To afford this, a household should earn $68,160 per year. For a three-bedroom unit in Honolulu, the salary requirement is nearly $99,000 鈥 approximately 122 percent of the average monthly income.

Fair Market Rent is the amount of money a property would command in a certain area if it were available for lease. But according to a website tracking rental properties, the in Honolulu in March 2010 was $2111.

The situation is going to get worse, Sofos said. She pointed to several factors. A tight credit market continues to make it difficult to obtain a loan. Hawaii’s unemployment situation is far from resolved. Inflation is starting to increase. And taxes continue to rise.

“So you have a perfect storm coming,” she noted. “Unless there’s job creation in the next nine months, it’s going to be very tight. And if people can’t come up with $150,000 for a down payment, they’re going to rent.” Further complicating matters, foreclosures or sales by necessity push former owners into the rental market, increasing competition.

Real estate analyst Ricky Cassiday predicted the housing and rental markets would remain flat before rising again. When real estate prices go up, rents follow, with a lag of a year or two. The irony of the situation is that a good economy drives home prices up, making them more unaffordable. When prices fall, people don’t have jobs, can’t purchase houses and struggle to make rent payments.

In current budget negotiations, the Honolulu City Council is floating a proposal to create a new property tax class for .”Landlords will be forced to move the cost down to the tenants,” said Sofos. “Those dollars are going right to the renter. They have to.”

It doesn’t appear that there’s an end in sight to the double bind in Honolulu.

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Taxes and Rail Can Make for a Rocky Relationship /2010/04/taxes-and-rail-can-make-for-a-rocky-relationship/ Thu, 29 Apr 2010 00:26:53 +0000 Holding the line on budget not easy on projects as big or complicated as rail, but Honolulu administration confident it's on track.

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The cost of multibillion construction projects can be as unpredictable as tax revenues and the economy itself.

The city has a $1 billion cushion in its $5.3 billion budget for potential cost overruns on its rail project. But based on the experience of some other cities, it’s possible the total cost could exceed the budget, leaving taxpayers on the hook.

The reliability of financial projections and the implications of exceeding them are among the concerns raised by critics of the rail project. But city officials say they have an adequate cushion to absorb cost overruns and point to successful rail projects on the mainland that have come in under budget to support their view that the plan is on track.

“They鈥檝e had to be conservative in their estimates, and that鈥檚 why there’s a billion dollar cushion in there,” said Mark Oto, the city鈥檚 deputy director of Budget and Fiscal Services Department. “They know there are going to be cost overruns.”

Honolulu residents and visitors already pay a 0.5-percent surcharge to the General Excise Tax to pay for rail. But the city dropped its rail tax projections for the fiscal year ending June 30 from $198 to $164 million, and the prediction now is that they’ll be even lower.

Even though city officials say that altering the surcharge 鈥 either raising it or extending it past its sunset date in 2022 鈥 is not in the plan, critics fear that they could be forced to find some way to increase revenues.

Some City Council members have expressed concern about financial projections 鈥 even with the cushion. Experts can find it difficult to accurately predict costs of major construction projects, because factors such as the global demand for steel and cement, as well as oil prices, can play such an instrumental role.

鈥淭hey always claim that there is the $1 billion cushion or contingency, but actually the way to look at it is how much is really needed to finance the completion of the rail,鈥 said Honolulu City Councilor Romy Cachola, who wrote a on the project. Uncertainty over whether the will come through with the entire $1.55 billion promised for the project is another complication.

Cliff Slater, chair of Sensible Traffic Alternatives and Resources Inc., a group opposed to rail, believes if the surcharge can’t be extended or raised, officials will raise property taxes 鈥 a current source of funds for many city operations, including TheBus.

The concern over costs also comes in snippets from the federal government.

“While the city already has in place a dedicated funding source, project costs have reached a point where they exceed the projected capacity of that source,” an October 2009 Federal Transit Administration said. “Further, the collections have under-run projections made before the current economic downturn…. A look ahead by the FTA’s financial contractor suggests that these difficulties may cause the financial plan to fail the financial stress tests that will be applied when the City requests entry into final design.”

However in an interview at the end of April an FTA spokesman declined to discuss financing specifically related to Honolulu. Later, responding to a broader line of questioning, he explained that the FTA only tracks rail projects funded under its New Starts Program. Of these projects in the last 10 years, approximately 70 percent were completed within budget, 15 percent came in under budget and 15 percent ran over.

“It should be noted that when New Starts projects exceed their budget, no additional New Starts funds are ever provided; rather, cost overruns are typically funded with local residents,” the FTA spokesman wrote in an e-mail message.

The overruns ranged from $19 million on a $327 million project to $1 billion on San Juan’s Tren Urbano project, he confirmed.

First Hawaiian Bank Chairman and CEO Don Horner has reviewed the Honolulu numbers and deems the financial plan reasonable 鈥 “even conservative.” Horner acknowledged that the proposal overestimated revenues from the GET surcharge, but he pointed out that the capital expenses were also determined at the peak of the construction market. The first construction bids came in 10 to 25 percent lower than anticipated in the budget, according to the FTA memo.

Yet even though the numbers look good to the veteran financier, he said another analysis from independent accountants is necessary.

City officials point to success stories in Vancouver, and , where the rail project was completed 30 percent under budget.

But Honolulu is not the only place with questions about rail costs. A 2007 by Bent Flyvbjerg of Aalborg University in Denmark cited the economic risks associated with urban rail projects. In many cases, cost data were not corrected for inflation, creating substantial errors in the fiscal outcome. He also noted that budgets are difficult to verify due to insufficient information 鈥 a point supported by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, related to the Honolulu rail project. “We’re skeptical,” said UHERO specialist Andrew Kato. “It’s hard to know what they’re basing their predictions on.”

In short, Flyvbjerg’s research concludes that of all transportation infrastructure projects worldwide, rail has the highest cost escalations, typically around 45 percent. A quarter of those projects escalate over 60 percent: “For urban rail, large cost escalations combined with large standard deviations result in a particularly high level of uncertainty and risk regarding forecasts of costs.”

A case in point is Denver, which is now discussing a ballot measure that could double the FasTracks sales tax to make up the the $2.4 billion dollar gap for a rail system scheduled to be built by 2019, according to a in The Denver Post. Metro Denver voters approved a 0.4 percent sales tax in 2004 to build FasTracks, but rising construction costs and dismal sales tax revenues shattered projections. At this point, Denver can afford to build only half its plan.

The story isn鈥檛 much different in Dallas. Gloomy sales tax revenues have raised concerns, noted a Dallas Morning News .

In California, a Los Angeles Times reported that transit officials are resorting to a simpler plan to share tracks as costs escalate. 鈥淚s it a high-speed rail ride to the future or a Bay Bridge boondoggle times 10?鈥 boomed a in the San Francisco Chronicle regarding the proposed rail from San Francisco to Los Angeles, which will demand $9 billion in voter approved bonds. Right after voters approved the $34 billion package, the price jumped to $43 billion, because the High Speed Rail Authority had failed to account for inflation.

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