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Cannabis legalization is on the ballot again this November.

Voters in , and will decide whether to allow adults 21 and up in their states to use cannabis recreationally.

Voters in will decide whether to allow medical access under a doctor’s care.

Voters in Arkansas will see a question about medical access on their ballot, but the state supreme court ruled that because the name and title of the measure were “misleading.”

The results of these ballot measures obviously matter to residents of each state, but they also will be telling for the future of the cannabis legalization movement. That’s because these states are all so-called red states where Republicans dominate state politics. They are part of the legalization movement’s biggest obstacle – what I call the “red wall.”

And because , red wall states are now the front line of the fight over cannabis reform.

A Bipartisan Coalition In The Beginning

Cannabis legalization hasn’t always been so partisan.

In fact, bipartisanship has been key to the success of the contemporary legalization movement, which .

How do I know? Because I’ve been told as much by the people who made it happen.

Since 2014, I’ve been trying to understand the contemporary legalization movement’s success and what it means for the future of U.S. drug policy. , my process is to go where the action is and talk to people with lived experience.

And so I’ve been talking to . In 2012, it became one of the first two states to legalize recreational use of cannabis, also called “adult use.”

Today, 48 states and Washington D.C. have approved cannabis for some kind of , although 10 of those states have legalized only containing low levels of THC, the active compound in cannabis. Adult use for anyone 21 and older is now allowed in .

This is a dramatic change that is undoing decades of prohibition.

Any political movement takes thousands of people to be successful, but it also takes leaders. In Colorado, attorney and activist played a pivotal role. With support from the , they spent most of the 2000s building the movement that made recreational legalization possible in Colorado.

When I asked Vicente and Tvert how they made it happen, they emphasized the same thing: To be effective, they had to build a new kind of coalition. They had to appeal to people who had no personal interest in consuming cannabis.

In Colorado, they made the case that , with tax money going to schools. The fact that Colorado allowed ballot initiatives was also key. It let activists take , bypassing opposition from the governor and other elected officials.

The strategy worked.

Liberals liked the social justice arguments. Conservatives liked that it enhanced individual liberty. And a broad cross section of voters liked that it would generate tax revenue and let the criminal justice system focus on more serious threats to public safety.

These voters made for a powerful coalition. And for years, such coalitions helped legalization measures pass in blue states like Oregon and California, and in red states like Alaska and Montana.

Hitting The Red Wall

But since 2020, legalization has become more partisan.

Of the 26 states where cannabis remains illegal for adult use, 20 are red states with a Republican trifecta, meaning that Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature and the governor’s office.

Another four – Kansas, Wisconsin, Kentucky and North Carolina – have Republican-controlled state legislatures and Democratic governors.

Pennsylvania is the only state in the nation where legislative control is split. Medical cannabis was legalized there in 2016, but .

And Hawaii is the lone blue state that has recreational cannabis. A slimmer majority of voters support it than in other blue states, and there are unique concerns such as the potential impact on the tourist economy.

All told, 92% of the states where adult use is still illegal are dominated – if not completely controlled – by Republicans who are much less likely to support legalization than either Democrats or independents. This is true of .

What’s more, 16 of the 26 states that have not legalized adult use cannabis don’t have a ballot initiative process, so supporters can’t take the issue directly to voters. The states with measures on the ballot this November are part of the minority that do.

Voters in states without ballot initiatives have no choice but to wait on their state legislatures to act. But most Republican-controlled legislatures have shown little interest in the issue, even when the majority of voters in the state support it – like .

Will The Red Wall Hold?

Based on polling and precedent, the red wall will likely hold during the 2024 election.

In South Dakota, most voters , so the measure is likely to fail for the third time.

Voters in conservative North Dakota have also rejected adult use legalization twice before, which makes success this year unlikely. On the other hand, it has than in other states, and more on the issue.

The medical measure in Nebraska is , but its future is uncertain. It faces an spurred in part by the state’s Attorney General Mike Hilgers who is .

And even if it survives legal challenge, that does not mean recreational legalization is around the corner. The most recent polling of Nebraskans shows , particularly among Republicans.

Florida Could Go Either Way

The wild card is . It , and supporters have been trying for years to get adult use on the ballot.

Polling this summer showed , but more recent polls show .

It still , but it faces a few obstacles.

First, it must pass with 60% of the vote.

Second, it has divided party leaders, with the state’s two highest-profile Republicans, Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, taking different positions on the issue. Trump says , while .

And third, it has drawn the ire of some legalization supporters for potentially giving disproportionate control of the market to . The concern is that the amendment as written does not require the state to increase the number of licensed businesses. Only already-licensed businesses would be guaranteed the opportunity to .

These same companies are the primary funders of the initiative, with Trulieve alone donating most of the . The company already in Florida and is one of the .

Ironically, DeSantis’ No campaign has put at the center of its own messaging, creating a potential coalition between people who oppose adult use legalization under any circumstances and those who oppose it when there’s too much corporate control.

Trulieve, for its part, has filed over the claims.

Where The Movement Goes From Here

Unless there are significant surprises this November, legalization supporters will need to find a new strategy to appeal to red state voters and legislators. They will need to take and seriously, address the persistence of racial disparities in , tackle the , and respond to the moral critiques of people like former Alabama Senator and U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions who feel that, simply put, “.”

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