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We’re witnessing a grand transformation in how we create energy here in Hawaii — and the Big Island is leading the way. Well, to be fair: Kauai and the Big Island are racing to be first across the finish line for 100% renewable electricity — and then, which is a much bigger task, to electrify transportation and industry too.

Lawmakers passed a ground-breaking law back in 2015 that required 100% renewables by 2045 for the whole state. It might take until 2045 for Oahu to get to 100% since they’re a much smaller island with a much larger population than either the Big Island or Kauai, but the Big Island is on track to reach 100% renewable electricity between 2030 and 2035.

That’s truly remarkable because we will have transformed from mostly fossil fuel-powered electricity (diesel fuel and coal, pretty much the worst of the worst) in 2000 to almost all renewable electricity by 2030.

Thirty years may sound like a long time, but that’s very rapid for a massive societal shift like this. Here’s the power mix for Oahu, Maui and Big Island in 2022, with Big Island in the lead:

We’ve had a significant amount of geothermal here on the Big Island since 1992, when Puna Geothermal Ventures came online. It’s been controversial and not always reliable, but it is renewable energy and produces power 24/7. It’s currently producing about 15-20% of our island’s power and is approved to grow by another 50% before 2030 (up to 60 megawatts).

Wind power has been around even longer and there are two major wind farms on the Big Island, one at South Point and one at the other end near Hawi (there’s a much smaller third wind farm at Lalamilo, near Waikoloa). Combined, our wind farms produce about 34 megawatts of power, which is about 11% of our power demand each year.

Small hydroelectric plants produce about 2% of our power. The big one, however, coming “out of nowhere” in the last twenty years, is solar power.

The combined total of rooftop solar (homes and businesses across the island) and utility solar (where companies build larger projects and sell the power to Hawaiian Electric) will provide about 35% of our total electricity by the end of 2024 (20% rooftop solar and 15% larger utility-scale solar plants).

This includes two new large solar plants, both on the Kona side. The , owned and operated by AES, is 30 megawatts and also has a large battery storage capacity that makes it much more versatile. This plant came online in early 2023. AES sells this power to HECO for about 9 cents per kilowatt-hour, which is historically a very cheap price. This single project provides about 7% of the island’s electricity needs.

A second plant is under construction and set to come online this fall: The , a little to the north of Waikoloa and developed by a subsidiary of Parker Ranch, will also be 30 megawatts and have the same size battery storage as the Waikoloa solar plant. It will provide another 7% or so of the island’s electricity.

Another three large solar projects, adding up to a substantial 200 megawatts, are slated to come online between 2028 and 2030. These will all have large battery storage capacity, which means they can store excess solar power and then feed it into the grid in the evening, when people need the most power. The below table, provided by HECO, shows the expected solar projects, battery storage, and online dates:

If we assume a 5% annual increase in electricity demand due to electrification of transportation (which means EVs of all types), this combination of rooftop solar and utility solar will provide about 60% of all electricity by 2030 for the Big Island.

Combined with geothermal, wind and small hydro, we will be over 90% renewable electricity by 2030. HECO’s Integrated Grid Plan for 2023 matches these figures, roughly, with a projection for the power mix by 2030, which will be 98.5% renewable for the Big Island:

I am hoping, however, that rather than being canceled (for whatever reason) they are instead accelerated and come online before the currently planned dates. I recently discussed this possibility with HECO and they assured me there’s nothing stopping these companies from bringing their projects online sooner.

With new tariffs on solar panels from China imposed this year by the Biden administration, it may make financial sense to buy panels now and install them sooner than 2028, if other pieces of the puzzle can come together in time.

HECO’s latest t shows the very helpful chart of planned renewables on the Big Island through 2045, with more than three-quarters coming from solar and wind by 2030:

This is another way of showing that HECO is forecasting fully 98.5% of the Big Island’s electricity will come from renewable energy sources by 2030 — backed up by large amounts of battery storage, and some remaining fossil power, to ensure that the lights stay on even when there isn’t any sun or wind power available.

I haven’t mentioned energy efficiency yet and it’s important to always include this key source of “negawatts.”

Hawaii is in general highly energy efficient due to our tropical climate and longer days, but there is plenty of room for improvement in terms of more efficient lightbulbs, better air conditioning equipment (heat pumps, in particular) and even trading out less efficient propane stoves and heating systems for electric.

If we continue to make advances in energy efficiency, we may achieve the 95-100% renewables scenario I’ve sketched even sooner than 2030.

I also haven’t mentioned EVs and transportation much in this piece because electrifying transportation and industrial processes is a different discussion entirely that will have to wait for my next article. That will be a much bigger task to achieve and will probably require that the Big Island expand its renewable energy portfolio another 1.5 times from 2030 in order to power all of those electric vehicles and industry.

The good news is that the above analysis shows that the Big Island is on a great trajectory toward a fully renewable, affordable, resilient and local energy future. This is a remarkable story that should be better understood and celebrated.