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An expert on presidential debates recently said this: “The effects of 2024 debates are unlikely to vary much from prior election years.”

Oops. He but not recently enough. A month after his infamous performance in the June 27 debate, Joe Biden dropped out and Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will debate Tuesday. A replacement candidate just 10 weeks before the election, transforming what was a long campaign between two unpopular candidates into one lasting just a little over two months., and with a very different vibe. Those things simply never happen. Talk about extraordinary.

Does that mean the next debate will also be extraordinary?

Not necessarily, because of the way debates work and most of all because of the way voters work.

The impact of the debate is likely to be a combination of something old and something new with a good possibility that the limited effects that debates usually have before will happen again.

It’s quite possible that the ordinary will supersede the exceptional, and the debate will have little impact.

There are three reasons why the debate may not be significant and four reasons why it might be.

Here is why the debate may not be a big deal.

First, there is on debates that show this lack of significance. As John Sides, a political scientist who looked at all debates between 1960 and 2010 put it, debates may move the polls, at least for a while, but rarely decide elections. Though Sides wrote this 12 years ago, his conclusions .

Second, a debate is more like a baseball game than a civics lesson. A presidential debate is like a single game in a 162-game Major League Baseball season that begins in early April and doesn’t end until only weeks before the presidential election takes place.

Presidential campaigns are also very long with many ups and downs for both candidates and plenty of time to make up deficits and develop new ones. A bad debate performance is like a bad pitching performance. Plenty of chances to do better.

Typically, people who watch games are fans. They aren’t watching for the love of the game or to learn more about both teams. They are cheering their faves on.

People who watch debates are also fans, not students. Fans don’t change their minds.

They’ve made up their mind about who they want to win and watch through those eyes. They may applaud a good play by the other side, but do not switch allegiance.

Debate-watchers are the same. Most people who watch have already decided which candidate will get their vote. They are fans who root-root-root for their candidate and watch to see him or her win.

Right now, close to 80% of voters are sure of which candidate they will vote for. Those are also the ones most likely to watch the debate.

The other 20% are the least likely to watch the debate. Some of these are swing voters if they vote at all.  Others are young (18-29) voters who, according to the polls, support Harris but are considerably less likely to vote and probably less likely to watch the debates.

Third, voters’ preferences are very stable. As it has been for many years now, voters are very polarized, switch allegiances less than they used to, and wish above all else to keep the opposition out of power.

Fourth, though Harris has made important gains in the polls and a re-enthused Democratic Party is on a roll, the polls show that Trump and Harris are still about even. The still have Trump with a real shot at winning.

The momentum may be in her favor, but anyone who thinks that Trump and Vance are on a permanent downhill slide, well, that’s MSNBC happy talk and baseball-fan base analysis.

Taken alone, all these things suggest that the debate will have a small impact in the overall campaign and on the choices voters make.

But that’s just one side. On the other side, here are three things that could make the debate extraordinary and important.

First, the race is likely to be very close, and in a close race a very small change can make a difference, especially if it is in states. Though right now, poll-wise, Harris versus Trump looks much like Biden versus Trump, the race right now seems more fluid, more like a work in progress.

Both candidates have a rock-solid fan base. But there is a little wiggle room, and a little wiggle can go a long way.

Second, Harris is a fresh face. The same experts who talk about debates’ limits suggest that this freshness could open up people’s minds more or at least get them to watch the debates.

Tuesday may turn out to be important in some ways, but I can’t see it being the One Big Thing.

Third, the upcoming debate is already exceptional.  It’s not two excessively well known, extremely unpopular old guys bumping up against each other.

We know how bad Joe Biden did in the last debate. We need to remember that he and Hillary Clinton before him did OK in their earlier debates with Trump.

We also need to keep in mind that whatever the debate’s protocol, Trump will be Trump and say whatever he wants.

Despite the reality show hype about debates, Tuesday may turn out to be important in some ways, but I can’t see it being the One Big Thing. 

“Who won the debate?” is baseball talk with a taste of nostalgia for high school debate teams where your teenage son in his best aloha shirt vied to win his “Be it resolved.”

At most the debate will be a shining moment along with other moments that illuminate or diminish (probably both) this shine — a small part of a bigger story and just one tiny part of a campaign’s mosaic.

Ironically, the debate may be most important for people who don’t even watch it because their choices as well as their willingness to vote are more up in the air. 

How does that work? Indirectly. It’s called the campaign.