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If history is any indicator, Vice President Kamala Harris will win Hawaii’s four electoral votes in the November presidential election.

Since gaining statehood in 1959, Hawaii has only supported two Republican presidential candidates: Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, both during their successful reelection bids. Despite this history, Republicans are hopeful for increased support for former President Donald Trump, based on the gains he made in the islands the last time around.

In the 2020 election, Trump managed to increase his share of the Hawaii vote to 34%, up from 30% in 2016.

Joe Biden also improved on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 numbers by 1%, but Trump’s gains were more significant in a majority of precincts. Remarkably, a quarter of Hawaii’s precincts saw a higher percentage of Republican presidential voters in 2020.

Oahu County Democratic Party Chair Lorna Strand, in an email to supporters, expressed concerns about these trends, writing, “In 2020 Trump increased his margin in most precincts on Oahu. Let’s not let that happen again in 2024.”

Nationally, Trump lost the popular vote in 2020 by a greater margin than he did in 2016. Yet, in our staunchly Democratic state, he gained ground. This odd finding, of course, sent me down a research rabbit hole in search of an explanation.

Trump’s 2020 improvements were concentrated on Oahu, Kauai and Maui, with more modest increases in Hawaii County. On Oahu, his support surged in half of the precincts stretching from
Liliha to the Leeward Coast, while Democrats lost ground. In contrast, Democrats made gains in precincts amid the more affluent areas of downtown Honolulu, Hawaii Kai and Kailua.

On the Valley Isle, Trump’s growth was concentrated in West Maui, while in Kauai County, it was primarily in House District 16, which includes West Kauai and Niihau.

‘He’s Going To Scare 40% To Death’

Steve Yoder, Kauai County chair of Trump’s 2020 campaign, attributes much of Trump’s success to his handling of the economy, arguing that his policies led to lower costs for basic goods like food and gas. He also believes concerns about immigration, border security and government overreach resonated with voters.

Looking ahead, Yoder believes Trump will again increase his vote share in Hawaii, saying, “I’ve heard it’s (Hawaii) in play, but I don’t believe it. But I firmly believe he’s going to scare 40% to death, maybe get a little bit higher in Hawaii because we’ve seen what the policies do.”

Mina Morita, a former Kauai legislator and vice chair of the Democratic Party of Hawaii, agreed that the economy was a factor in Trump’s 2020 boost. She also pointed to the rise of the anti-vaxxer movement amid the Covid-19 pandemic as an additional factor.

Morita remains confident about the Democrats’ chances in 2024, stressing the importance of reaching lower- and middle-income families with an economic message.

“Reproductive rights, gun laws, climate change resonate easily with us,” she said. “But definitely, I think the Harris ticket provides a more hopeful economic future for middle-class families. And I hope that can be emphasized.”

Oahu’s ‘Red Target Zone’

In an email, Shirlene Ostrov, president of the Oahu League of Republican Women and state chair of Trump’s 2024 campaign in Hawaii, credited several factors for Trump’s better showing last election, including his incumbency and the unique political, social and economic unrest of 2020.

She also acknowledged the importance of vote-by-mail systems in bolstering voter turnout.

Ostrov believes Republicans have reason to be optimistic in 2024, particularly in West Oahu, Central Oahu and the North Shore. According to Ostrov, Republicans are gaining among “people in the places most neglected by decades of Democratic rule are fighting back. They’re voting differently and they have reasons to.  I think people definitely feel that the institutions and the ‘political machine’ have failed us.”

Reflecting on the Republican gains on Oahu, the Democrats’ Strand expressed concern about the GOP’s strategy. She noted that during the 2020 election cycle, she learned of Republican plans to target areas of Oahu from Fort Shafter to Makaha and Mililani, which she now refers to as the “Red Target Zone.”

“Trumpians have been effective in appealing to the emotions of those who feel left out and powerless,” Strand said. However, she remains hopeful that the Harris campaign’s message of hope, hard work and economic progress can prevent any GOP surge.

For Republicans, capitalizing on Trump’s 2020 gains is key to their 2024 strategy. Tamara McKay, chair of the Hawaii Republican Party, highlighted the importance of endorsements from figures like Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who have expressed support for Trump.

“This alignment shows that our message is resonating across party lines,” McKay said, noting that the party will continue to focus on building a broader coalition of voters who may not have traditionally identified as Republicans.

Democrats Focus On Achievements

Hawaii Democrats, meanwhile, are focused on reinforcing their economic message and highlighting their support for working-class families. Derek Turbin, chair of the Democratic Party of Hawaii, said the party’s focus will be on promoting its achievements in tax cuts for middle-class families as well as its pro-worker policies.

“I think emphasizing the fact that our Democratic-led Legislature passed tax cuts for middle-class people here in Hawaii is a strong message to voters,” Turbin said.

Turbin acknowledged that some voters may be drawn to Trump’s economic message, but he said that the Democratic Party offers a more sustainable and equitable future.

“Some voters feel like there are economic policies that Trump has that would benefit them. But I strongly disagree,” Turbin said, adding that the party is working hard to counter Trump’s appeal, particularly on the west side of Oahu.

Whether Democrats or Republicans increase their vote share in targeted precincts this election is unlikely to change the statewide outcome. Harris can pretty much bank on Hawaii’s electoral votes.

But another uptick in votes for Trump could signal shifting loyalties in districts that could be competitive for future state-level races.

Both parties should continue to pay attention.