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Weeks before Kim Coco Iwamoto unseated House Speaker Scott Saiki in the Democratic primary election Saturday, she described specific plans for overhauling both the House leadership and the way it operates.

Iwamoto wants to combine forces with 25 other like-minded House lawmakers — a majority — to demand specific reforms, and then offer their support to leaders who pledge to deliver them.

But hers will be one vote among 51 in the House, and things are moving quickly. While Saiki will soon be leaving office, the ruling Democratic caucus has an array of other players with ambitions of their own.

Veteran lawmakers said Sunday they have already begun private discussions to select a new speaker.

Likely candidates for speaker mentioned by insiders include Majority Leader Nadine Nakamura; Water and Land Committee Chair Linda Ichiyama, Finance Committee Chair Kyle Yamashita, and Judiciary and Hawaiian Affairs Committee Chair David Tarnas.

In general, Nakamura and Ichiyama appear to be the favored candidates, in part because they are experienced but also because the selection of either would give the Hawaii House its first female speaker.

In a year where the presidential election features a woman of color leading a national ticket, there is a sense of momentum and history-making among party members.

But each of the veteran lawmakers being eyed for speaker are ensconced in the existing House leadership structure, suggesting there may be more of a leadership shuffle than a revolution in the works.

‘If You Beat The Speaker, You Don’t Become Speaker’

The challenge with Iwamoto’s vision for change is partly that it would dilute the power of the new House leadership, and it will be unsurprising if the top political echelon chooses to retain that power.

For example, Iwamoto wants to limit the ability of the Finance Committee to kill bills that have no fiscal implications. That technical tweak could have a major impact on which bills pass in the flurry of activity near the close of each legislative session.

Certainly that matters, but it is an obscure concept to most people. House members walking door-to-door this election cycle surely heard more from their constituents about the cost of housing and homelessness than the little-known procedures the House uses to make new laws.

Colin Moore, a University of Hawaii political scientist, said in a recent interview that Iwamoto is advocating “potentially sensible reforms” that others have supported for years.

But he added: “We have to remember that if you beat the speaker, you don’t become speaker.”

“Kim Coco Iwamoto becomes a brand new, junior member of the Hawaii House of Representatives, and brand new members usually are expected to sort of be seen and not heard, like children,” Moore said. “She would be a high-profile new member, but in the House a lot of it is based on seniority.”

To succeed with her reform plan, Iwamoto would have to make the case that her narrow victory over Saiki in the district covering Kakaako and Ala Moana is a clear mandate for change. That may be difficult to do after a primary where a historic number of Hawaii adults did not bother to vote.

Moore said House rules and procedures exist as they are “because the majority of the House wants them that way.” Replacing the speaker “doesn’t mean there will be a radical change in the sentiment of the House about how they currently do business.”

At the Democratic Party’s traditional post-primary Unity Breakfast on Sunday morning at the Japanese Cultural Center in Honolulu, Saiki sat at the leaders’ table along with Luke and U.S. Sens. Mazie Hirono and Brian Schatz.

Iwamoto was also in attendance.

When Gov. Josh Green honored Saiki from the podium for his “incredible career,” the Democrats packing the room rose to their feet.

Saiki did not speak, letting Nakamura, the majority leader, speak on behalf of the House. Both she and Senate President Ron Kouchi praised Saiki for his leadership during the Covid pandemic and the Maui wildfires.

What Lies Ahead

The speaker is traditionally chosen in closed-door meetings of members of the Democratic caucus. The selection process often includes agreements among various House factions that determine which members are elevated to other influential leadership positions and committee chairmanships.

Yamashita and Tarnas are seen as preferring their current chair positions leading the House Finance Committee and the House Judiciary and Hawaiian Affairs Committee, respectively.

Those committees are the most powerful and influential in the House, and both Tarnas and Yamashita are only in their second year as chairs.

There is also a sense of a generational shift. When Saiki was elected to the House in 1994, he was part of a cohort of so-called progressive members who often chafed against the more mainstream leadership of Speaker Calvin Say.

Sylvia Luke, now the lieutenant governor, was part of the dissident group. But the mantle has passed to others.

There are also younger and hungrier legislators who are playing more prominent roles in passing legislation and speaking out on the issues, members said. They added that the final selection of a new speaker will depend on seniority, institutional knowledge and the ability to bring legislators together.

Saiki issued a statement Sunday through his campaign thanking his supporters.

“I believe the community recognizes our team’s hard work and commitment and I’m proud of what we accomplished in delivering for our schools, improving traffic safety, passing the largest tax break in history, and addressing the condo insurance crisis,” the statement read. “To serve House District 25 has been the honor of a lifetime, and I again want to say mahalo for all of the support.”

Civil Beat reporter Blaze Lovell contributed to this report.