Polarization May Phase Out Of American Politics As Younger Generations Shift Into Power
Earlier generations — the Silents, baby boomers and Gen X — are more divided than millennials and Gen Z.
The sharp increase in political polarization in America over the past 50 years has been driven in part by how different generations think about politics. But the rise of younger generations to political power may actually erase the deep social divisions associated with polarization.
That’s one of the strong possibilities for the future suggested by the diverse array of findings of our research, including editing a collection of the most current work on how different generations of Americans participate in public life.
For the past 30 years, baby boomers (those born roughly between 1946 and 1964) and members of the Silent Generation (those born between 1925 and 1945) have driven and defined American politics. For the most part, the Silent Generation and the older baby boomers were the core of the Republican Party. And the younger baby boomers, along with many Gen Xers (born roughly between 1965 and 1981), formed the core of the Democratic Party.
Millennials (born between 1982 and 1995) and Gen Z (born between 1996 and 2013) . They were in 2018, 2020 and 2022, especially in swing states.
Based on our research, presented in “: From the Silents to Gen Z and Beyond,” earlier generations — the Silents, baby boomers and Gen X — are more divided than millennials and Gen Z.
We expect that in the future, highly partisan members of the Silent, boomer and Gen X generations will exit and no longer be part of American political life. They will be replaced by millennials and Gen Zers, who are less likely to define themselves as strong Republicans or Democrats. The may lessen polarization.
5 Decades Of Change
Back in the 1960s and 1970s, the vast majority of Americans had views , with smaller numbers of people holding notably right-leaning or left-leaning opinions. In general, most voters had a broad consensus on policy issues. The Democratic and Republican parties were also . During this time period, Congress passed the Great Society programs, the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act and the Clean Air Act .
But over the past 50 years, fewer and fewer Americans have identified themselves as aligned with the political center, and more have described themselves as , either as liberals or conservatives. This has led to , with the Democrats to the left of center and the Republicans to the right.
Members of Congress now are more likely to stick with their political party when voting, rather than vote for legislation supported by the other party. Recent passage of legislation linking Ukraine aid with support of Israel has been described as “.”
This , including the influence of and society’s . But our research highlights the role that new and changing generations can play in future shifts in American politics.
American politics is the constant cycle of generations entering and exiting the political arena. Even more, variation in the social and political environment during notably affects the attitudes and behaviors each generation will subsequently adopt.
For instance, the youngest generation is used to a 24-hour online news cycle and has experience with contested elections. Changes in generational attitudes today hold the potential to lessen current levels of polarization.
Generations Have Different Characteristics
When we look across the past century, our research finds profound differences in the demographics and political views of the generations today.
The are the in American history. They are the , which means they are less likely than their elders to say they follow a religion, to believe in a biblical god and to pray.
Additionally, these younger generations are more likely to . As we and others explain in several chapters of our book, surveys show they are regarding social matters, the .
Millennials and Gen Zers also than older generations. And there is some evidence to support the expectation that their governing style as elected officials emphasizes issues that millennial citizens care about. For example, a set of who held office at focused on traditional economic concerns but also added social justice perspectives to the mix.
A New Political Center?
The consensus on political views among members of these younger generations means there is potential for decreasing polarization. This would be a key change in American politics, we believe for the better.
But there are other possible scenarios. As the old saying goes, . There are thorny methodological questions involved in pinning down the impact of generations.
Politically, can be conservative on social issues. And consensus among young Democrats could be challenged by events such as campus protests over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
Overall, however, generational shifts portend the possibility of decreasing polarization.
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