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The closing gavel of the 2024 legislative session on Friday also signaled the unofficial commencement of incumbent legislators’ campaign season. While incumbents enjoy high reelection rates, the transition from governing to campaigning can be nerve-wracking.

Post-legislative session, incumbent lawmakers tackle a common list of tasks. They set up bill signing photo ops with the governor, compile end-of-session reports to showcase legislative achievements and schedule town halls to update constituents in person, often featuring legislative leaders as guest speakers.

In an election year, incumbents are also refreshing the to scan for potential challengers who, like all candidates, would first need to receive nomination papers and collect signatures from qualified voters. As of Friday, the Office of Elections has issued nomination papers to 129 potential candidates for the 62 state legislative seats up for election in November. Fifty of those candidates are incumbents in the Hawaii State Legislature.

So far, 12 incumbents at the end of their terms have not yet collected their nomination papers for reelection from the Office of Elections. That number will change in the coming weeks, but there will be at least four open seats this year. Sen. Maile Shimabukuro and Reps. Cedric Gates, Bert Kobayashi and Scott Nishimoto each gave farewell speeches on Friday.

Choosing to leave a job that you love is a difficult decision. In my farewell speech, I said something like, “I never expected to be leaving voluntarily.” In truth, I treated every election like I might lose it.

Though I know some incumbents might take reelection for granted, most of the incumbents I have known took challenges as seriously as I did.

And, while it is easy to believe that they are just trying to hold on to power, that isn’t all there is to it. Representing your community in the Legislature is a pretty fulfilling job so it should not be surprising or nefarious that those who have the job want to keep it.

So, what does an incumbent do to transition into a winning reelection campaign post-session? It depends on the challenge.

Nineteen incumbents who have received their nomination papers are currently unopposed. These will be the members monitoring the candidate list vigilantly, hoping to maintain their solitary status until the candidate filing deadline passes on June 4. Once it does, they can breathe easier, but their campaign season does not end. It shifts.

As an example, Rep. Gene Ward is no stranger to running unopposed. One of few House Republicans, Ward has represented his Hawaii Kai district continuously since 2006 and withstood enough challenges to make any potential recruit think twice about taking him on. Having worked for Ward, I know firsthand that he campaigns hard even when he does not have an opponent. It is part of his sticking power.

There are other incumbents like Ward who take the opportunity to keep their name in the public’s eye by sign-waving and sending campaign mail even if they do not have a challenge. They will also put time and energy into other legislative races that their party or their faction need to win.

Unopposed incumbents help other candidates by raising money, sending volunteers, joining them for sign-waving and, occasionally, designing their campaign materials. Sometimes, it really is just about friendship and loyalty, but it’s also the case that incumbents can build alliances with incoming legislators by supporting their initial campaigns.

Of the 31 incumbents with potential challengers, those with primary races have the shortest runway to transition into their campaigns. These lawmakers will be eager to shore up party support, influential endorsements from community leaders and time commitments from local volunteers. And, with the primary election only three months away, they will need to solidify their base while simultaneously knocking on doors and sign-waving.

Currently, 11 incumbents have had candidates only from within their own parties pull nomination papers against them. For Democratic incumbents, these can be the most precarious competitions because primary elections attract more dedicated yet fewer voters allowing a challenger to swing the election with a relatively small number of new voters or targeted outreach to likeminded partisans.

In 2023, freshman lawmakers made up the largest percentage of the Legislature in 30 years. Seven of those incumbents are facing primary races. Reps. May Mizuno and Trish La Chica, who were both appointed after the 2022 election, are in particularly vulnerable positions. Mizuno could face a three-way primary with experienced community organizer Ikaika Hussey and retired state legislator Dennis Nakasato if all three candidates file. Ken Inouye, son of U.S. Senator Daniel Inouye, announced his intention to run against La Chica early this year.

Of course, incumbents who have a general election also need to rally their supporters and hit the pavement, but they have more time to do it. And, in Hawaii, most general election races are not competitive. For the nine Democrats facing Republican challengers, the odds are very much in their favor.

In 2022, three Democratic incumbents lost to Republican challengers following reapportionment, but that is a rare result. Incumbents have less of an advantage in new districts because they are facing different electorates and carry less name recognition. Republican Reps. David Alcos and Diamond Garcia, who both defeated incumbent Democrats in 2022, will likely face Democratic challengers in the coming year, and while the incumbent advantage extends to Republicans, it’s not nearly as strong.

And, lastly, I cannot neglect the incumbents who have both primary and general races. So far, only seven incumbents fit this profile, and they will have to do all of the above for the next six months and allocate their resources toward the greatest threats.

For example, Rep. Lauren Matsumoto is looking at a potential challenge from a Republican and a Democrat, but given her established position within the Republican Party, she would most likely focus her time on her general election opponent.

On the other hand, Rep. Mahina Poepoe, whose 2022 primary opponent drew nomination papers again on Friday, will likely pour her energy into that rematch before turning to her general election challenger.

Despite the myriad pressures, reelection remains highly probable for the majority of incumbents. In 2022, after redistricting took place, 85% of incumbents who ran for reelection won their races. In 2020, 98% of incumbents won reelection.

Regardless of the odds, reelection never feels guaranteed, and it shouldn’t. We want our legislators to keep earning our votes no matter how many times we have supported them before. Most lawmakers understand that and spend a large portion of their post-session transition presenting evidence that they’ve done what they promised.