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“There’s no way he’ll run, right?”

This question has come up in every political conversation I’ve had in the last year. Obviously, it’s referencing 80-year-old President Joe Biden.

Now, the world knows that the octogenarian incumbent will run for reelection. And it seems his cleared the field of any other serious Democratic contenders. Marianne Williamson, Oprah’s former spiritual adviser, is still in the race along with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist. despite the latter’s dynastic family name.

��������’s rests on the premise that “we are in a battle for the soul of America. And we still are.” He wants to finish the job. Presumably, he (and a lot of other people) determined that no one else can finish it for him.

Despite believing Biden should not run, one of the most to consider other contenders showed a lack of consensus among Democratic voters about who should run in his place.

Of the potential candidates named, Kamala Harris was the only candidate in the top three to exceed 20%, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were the only others to break into double digits. Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom polled at 8% and 7%, respectively. Support for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Joe Manchin, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and Stacey Abrams was 5% or below.

��������’s ability to beat former President Donald Trump was a prominent argument for his 2020 nomination. That belief likely still informs Democratic voters’ thinking about their 2024 ticket. They may not want Biden to run, but they don’t see anyone else attracting the coalition needed to win.

A revealed that regardless of their preferred candidate’s profile, over half of Democrats believed that they needed a white male candidate to win back the presidency.

As disheartening as that is, this perception persists. In 2020, Biden among white voters in key swing states, and the same voters, particularly , will be critical to victory again in 2024.

Demographics Will Play A Key Role

However, in pursuing white voters, the Biden campaign can’t take nonwhite voters for granted. Turnout among Black voters has proven hugely important for Democrats in states like Georgia. His popularity with Southern Black voters was key to clinching the Democratic nomination in 2020. After ��������’s in South Carolina, Buttigieg and Klobuchar him almost immediately.

waning enthusiasm for the Biden campaign among Black voters, many of whom feel he hasn’t delivered on his promises. Similarly, Asian voters in states like Georgia have expressed concerns that they’re by Democratic candidates despite their growing influence. Latino voters, like most voters of color, for Democrats in 2020 and 2022, but Republicans are making .

In states with tight margins, even small gains or losses with key demographics could swing the vote for either party.

Demographics aside, Biden could also suffer from a mixed bag of policy successes and failures. His handling of , a pandemic-era health law that affected immigration policy, high inflation rates and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan will likely be weak points for his campaign.

On the other hand, Biden is a savvy political operator whose ability to maneuver legislation through Congress rivals that of Sen. Mitch McConnell. His successful negotiation of the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure bill is a perfect example.

Ultimately, ��������’s chances of reelection will vary depending on who emerges from the Republican primary, which I took an in-depth look at earlier this month.

If Trump, 76, wins the Republican nomination, ��������’s age and standing with Black, Indigenous and people of color communities will be less of a factor. However, if Ron DeSantis is on the ballot, it will be an entirely different race.

In his , the Florida governor gained more than half of Latino voters, including 75% of Cuban voters. He also increased Republican margins with Black voters and won a majority of college graduates and suburban voters.

If Biden loses ground with any of these demographics, he’ll have a much tougher path to victory. Further, 44-year-old DeSantis, or any of the other younger Republican candidates, could appeal to the who have doubts about ��������’s age and mental fitness.

Getting Involved

How can Hawaii residents get involved in presidential campaigns? Both parties are firming up their plans for their 2024 presidential caucuses. Hawaii’s Democratic presidential preference poll to select the party’s nominee is scheduled to take place in person on April 6 (pending DNC approval) and by mail. Interested voters must be to participate.

The Hawaii Republican Party’s caucuses are expected to take place in person on March 12. To vote for a Republican nominee, interested voters will also need to officially .

To track important deadlines and caucus announcements, residents should visit the to view Hawaii’s official parties and sign up with a preferred party before the election cycle gets underway.

Both parties and their affiliates run text and phone banks for presidential campaigns and competitive mainland races that offer another way Hawaii voters can participate nationally.

Handwritten postcards have become a popular way to participate in progressive campaigns with organizations like and the running postcard drives to swing states. Conservatives will also have a variety of volunteer opportunities listed in the Republican National Committee’s .

Being from a reliably blue state in an entirely different time zone, it often feels like national elections happen without us. However, our opportunities to support candidates in other states expand every election, and I’m certain there will be more innovations this year.

All that said, don’t forget to support your local candidates too!