Guns On The Ballot: How Mixed Midterm Results Will Affect Firearm聽Policy
At the state and local level, young candidates who ran campaigns centered on gun violence prevention were elected.
The U.S. midterm elections took place in the backdrop of surging gun violence and in a year scarred by high-profile mass shootings.
And though exit polls indicated that abortion rights and inflation were the top motivating issues for voters, views toward guns also played a significant role. Indeed, a survey by Edison Research found that around 1 in 10 .
That guns were in the mind of many voters should not be too much of a surprise. In 2020, number of gun deaths, and shows a continuing increase. Disparities in gun violence widened 鈥 in 2020, the firearm homicide rate for young Black men was greater than the rate for young white men. The midterms were also the first national vote since the tragic ; and , Illinois.
The midterm elections offered voters the opportunity to affect gun policy in two ways. First, it gave voters the chance to elect local, state and national officials who will have a say in which are considered and implemented. And second, in two states 鈥 Iowa and Oregon 鈥 residents voted on gun rights and gun violence initiatives. The mixed results in these initiatives, in particular, reveal much about the state of gun policy in the United States.
State Ballot Initiatives
In the two states in which guns appeared explicitly on ballots, voters approved measures that moved state gun laws in opposite directions. that enshrined a right to bear arms and specified a standard for judicial review of gun laws, while an initiative that requires a permit to buy a firearm and bans large capacity ammunition magazines.
Around voted to add the right to bear arms to the state constitution. This amendment with 44 states that have similar provisions.
Iowa鈥檚 amendment differs from most by also setting a strict scrutiny standard for evaluating gun restrictions. Under strict scrutiny, a state law will only be upheld by a court if it is narrowly tailored to further a compelling government interest. Researchers have not studied how these provisions affect gun violence, but this amendment is part of an overall trend in Iowa toward deregulating guns. the carrying of concealed handguns without a license and repealed its longstanding law requiring a permit to purchase a handgun. Research has found that both of these changes are associated with .
Meanwhile, Oregon voters narrowly an initiative adopting a permit-to-purchase law. Under Oregon Measure 114, all would-be gun buyers will be to first acquire a permit from local law enforcement. To acquire a permit, applicants will need to be fingerprinted, pass a background check and undergo safety training.
Research has consistently shown that laws requiring a permit to purchase a gun are in , , and other measures of gun crime.
Despite this evidence, only , have this policy, and Oregon will be the first state to adopt it since . In addition, the Oregon initiative institutes a ban on large-capacity magazines 鈥 those that hold more than 10 rounds and allow shooters to fire for longer periods before reloading. Bans of these devices have been associated with .
The Impact Of Supreme Court鈥檚 Bruen Ruling
The midterms were the first general elections since the Supreme Court set a new standard for evaluating gun laws under the Second Amendment. Under , which came down in June 2022, courts must assess whether a gun law is consistent with the 鈥渉istorical tradition of firearm regulation鈥 in the U.S. In its opinion, for lower courts to use . Despite the lack of clarity, this standard will affect implementation of Iowa鈥檚 and Oregon鈥檚 new policies.
The fact that Iowa鈥檚 constitutional amendment requires analysis of state gun laws under a strict scrutiny standard creates a difficult situation for state judges, who may have to strict scrutiny and the historical tradition test from the Bruen ruling.
Laws requiring a permit to purchase are popular, but they will almost certainly be challenged either in Oregon or in one of the other nine states with such a policy. For the law to be upheld, a court would need to find that such a law was consistent with the country鈥檚 history and tradition of firearm regulation. Rigorous historical analyses have proved difficult for courts.
Despite the confusion created by the Supreme Court, the midterm election results indicate that gun violence remains an important issue for voters and elected officials.
At the state and local level, who ran campaigns centered on gun violence prevention were elected. Control of some state legislatures and executive branches shifted from one party to the other and, as of this writing, control of the U.S. House of Representatives will come down to several close contests.
The outcomes of these state and local elections will dramatically affect the likelihood that gun violence prevention legislation and programs are considered and implemented in the coming months.
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