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State lawmakers could have about $450 million more to spend on the state budget for the last four months of this fiscal year, which ends June 30.

The additional cash is based on projected growth rates in state tax revenues set by the state Council on Revenues, a five-member panel of tax experts and public accountants. The Legislature uses the council’s projections to write the state’s budget.

Hawaii tax collections could be higher than $8.7 billion for the current fiscal year. Higher prices, higher income, inflation and an influx of tourists factored into the council’s decision to raise projected tax collections for the year from $8.3 billion, a target set in January.

At its January meeting, the council set the state’s general fund growth rate at 15%. On Thursday, the council voted unanimously to raise that projected increase to 21%.

While tax growth may be strong this year, uncertainties over the effect the war in Ukraine could have on the U.S. economy tempered expectations that state revenues would keep climbing. The council predicts tax growth will slow in 2023 and level off in 2024.

The new projections for the current fiscal year bring the state’s budget surplus close to $1.3 billion. Gov. David Ige has proposed tucking much of that into the state’s rainy day fund.

House Finance Chairwoman Sylvia Luke said additional monies should be reinvested in state programs, but warned that revenues often level off in the years following a large budget increase.

“We just need to make sure we aren’t making significant, recurring expenses,” Luke said.

The state’s budget bill cleared the Finance Committee on Thursday and moves next to a floor vote. After that, it will cross over to the Senate.

Senate Ways and Means Chairman Donovan Dela Cruz said the increased revenues wouldn’t change the Senate’s budget priorities or how it approaches the next half of session.

“It’s clear we still need to save in areas where we need to save,” Dela Cruz said.

Dela Cruz said some of the additional money could be put in the rainy day fund. But he said senators are still waiting for guidance from state budget officials on how new allocations of money could affect funding for the University of Hawaii and Department of Education.

Under rules approved by Congress as part of the coronavirus relief packages, Hawaii must continue to allocate a proportional amount of money to the DOE and UH. In other words, if any department gets more money, there’s a chance UH and the DOE could get more money.

Dela Cruz was also concerned about the impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could have on the local economy and contemplated setting aside money to deal with those effects.

Council members were also concerned about the war, which is stretching into its third week. In particular, they worried sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and its allies could spell increased costs for residents, particularly in the form of increased gas and fuel prices.

“Whatever sanctions there were, it will be coming back to U.S. consumers, so they’ll feel the higher costs,” Maui accountant Marilyn Niwao said during the council meeting.

That may not have any major effect on the local economy, and the state budget, in the near term.

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization estimates Hawaii will see about 8.3 million tourists by the end of the current fiscal year. That would rise to more than 9 million tourists in 2023.

But there’s some concern over how higher prices could impact visitor travel to the islands in the years after that.

“It’s really about 2023, and how much higher prices factors into people’s budget, and that plays in to their decision over whether or not to come to Hawaii,” UHERO economist Carl Bonham said during Thursday’s council meeting.

The council’s next forecast is scheduled for late May.

Civil Beat reporter Kevin Dayton contributed to this story.