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Civil Beat recently published an article by Noel Morin of the Citizens’ Climate Lobby, which advocates for a carbon tax, something that has been considered by the Hawaii Legislature for at least two years.

So what is a carbon tax, and what is its purpose?

The theory is that a tax on the production or consumption of goods that produce carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, will incentivize producers and consumers to stop doing that to save money. It is inherently an assumption about consumer behavior, or as marketers like to call it, “price sensitivity.”

There is no magic cost increase that will produce the behavior a carbon tax seeks. In the case of Hawaii’s bills, the presumed “cost” of a ton of CO2 produced was $20. Climate advocates determined that $20 was “not enough” and got it changed to $80 a ton.

The basis for this fourfold increase was their belief that $20 a ton, boiled down to the price of gasoline and jet fuel, was not punitive enough to force you and me to change our destructive ways.

Today’s bill, , contains a list of every type of fossil fuel, but still adds “Other.” Here is the first year (next year), and what the taxes will increase to by 2035:

The 2035 tax on gasoline of $33.16 per barrel is $.79 per gallon (42 gallons in a petroleum barrel). How do they know that will get your attention, let alone in the earlier years? They don’t.

Hawaii has had many tests of our price sensitivity on gasoline. Each time prices went out of sight, consumption declined briefly, and then came right back to about where it was before. A good example was in July 2008, when Regular gasoline jumped from $3.48 to $4.47 in six months (Source: DBEDT).

During that period, and continuing to this day, the consumption of gasoline has basically remained flat.

Today, the average price of regular in Hawaii is about $5 (Source: AAA), and consumption is fairly close the average for the last 15 years (Source: DBEDT/EIA).

Old Habits

What does this tell us about the ability of a carbon tax to chase us out of our gasoline cars and into electric vehicles by increasing gas prices? It tells us that we value our driving experience so much, we will give up other things to keep doing it as we always have. Old habits are hard to break.

Another look at the tax amounts reveals something equally nonsensical. Apparently, those producing them think that it takes different amounts of tax to produce the desired rejection of the product.

So, a $4.68 tax on jet fuel will make you want to fly less, but it will take $5.27 to make you drive less or buy an electric car. Similarly, each tax increases by different amounts over the next 13 years.

Is something expected to happen to our price sensitivity as the years go by?

Of course, the expectation that a carbon tax passed through to Hawaii consumers will drive us all to adopt electric vehicles is not based on any real data or science. It is based on a desire of well-meaning climate activists to punish you for using your gasoline car, economically forcing you to change your ways.

But wait! The bill eases the pain. You’re going to get some of that money back as a Hawaii resident!

First of all, does that make any sense to you? The state is going to tax your gasoline, and then give the money back? HB 2278 includes a rebate scheme, giving rise to the title of Mr. Morin’s comments: “Carbon Cashback.”

Write your legislator and ask them to oppose the carbon tax.

Of course, it’s complicated. But the gist of it is that, by 2035, Hawaii taxpayers will get a carbon tax credit between $240 and $960.

Whether you already drive an electric vehicle, don’t drive at all, or drive your gas guzzler, you likely will qualify. No matter if you drive 10 miles or 10,000 miles a year, you can claim this credit, which you file with your state tax return to reduce your taxes. It’s not based on miles, it’s based on your tax category.

Does this smell? It should.

This tax would begin first thing next year, and go on forever. It’s a multi-billion dollar annual revenue windfall for the state, because the money not handed out as tax credits will go into a series of funds, including the state general fund.

The state has over a million cars on the road. Currently, only 17,000 of them are electric, after over 20 years of their availability.

The state wants to be 100% renewable by 2045, even though it’s not clear how it will get there, with renewables, thousands of chargers, and rebuilding the grid. But it wants you to buy an electric car to help it get there. In 2035, if you drive 10,000 miles and average 25 mpg, keeping your gasoline powered car is going to cost you an additional $316 a year because of the carbon tax. You will then qualify for a tax rebate of between $240 and $960.

Huh? What the heck is going on here?

Write your legislator and ask them to oppose the carbon tax.