The stakes in one of the most significant Second Amendment cases in U.S. history are high.

The Supreme Court鈥檚 ruling in , expected by mid-2022, could declare a New York state restriction on carrying concealed handguns in public places unconstitutional.

Such a ruling in favor of the plaintiffs, which include a National Rifle Association affiliate, could loosen gun regulations in many parts of the country.

In my view , this case is also noteworthy in that how the court reaches its conclusion could affect the Second Amendment analysis of all weapons laws in the future.

The court is set to hear on Nov. 3.

The right to carry a concealed handgun is an issue going to the U.S. Supreme Court next month. AP/2016

Long On The Books

In 1911, after an increase in homicides, New York instituted a handgun permitting system. In 1913, the permitting system was amended to address concealed carrying.

For more than a century, someone seeking to carry a concealed handgun for self-defense in the state has needed to file a permit application showing that they have what the law calls 鈥.鈥

To obtain an unrestricted permit, 鈥渄emonstrate a special need for self-protection distinguishable from that of the general community,鈥 such as by showing they are being stalked.

New York鈥檚 attorneys defend this restrictive approach to issuing concealed carry permits as an effective means to reduce gun violence. In 2020, there were , including suicides and homicides. There are also non-fatal firearm injuries each year.

New York has some of the strictest gun laws in the country, and its homicide rate is .

The Plaintiffs

were denied unrestricted concealed carry permits because a judge determined that they did not satisfy New York鈥檚 proper-cause standard.

Instead, Koch was to carry a concealed handgun for self-defense while traveling to and from work. Both plaintiffs鈥 licenses also permit them to carry concealed handguns for hunting and target practice, and for self-defense in areas not 鈥.鈥

Along with the NRA鈥檚 New York affiliate, Nash and Koch contend that these limitations on their ability to carry a concealed handgun violate their right to bear arms. They assert a broad view of the right to carry a handgun, one that extends virtually 鈥溾 the need for self-defense might arise.

New York鈥檚 law defies that conception of the Second Amendment.

The Heller Ruling鈥檚 Muted Effects

In considering Bruen, the Supreme Court will focus on the meaning of an important precedent: .

When the Supreme Court issued its Heller ruling in 2008, a 5-4 majority struck down Washington, D.C.鈥榮 ban on the possession of handguns in the home. The court held for the first time that the Second Amendment protects an individual鈥檚 right to keep and bear arms.

Supreme Court justices have allowed less restrictive gun measures in the past but kept the exceptions narrow. Conservative justices appointed by former President Trump could change things. Nick Grube/Civil Beat/2018

Writing for the majority, the late Justice Antonin Scalia declared that the 鈥渃entral component鈥 of the Second Amendment was not a 鈥,鈥 but rather 鈥渢he inherent right of self-defense.鈥

But the majority鈥檚 decision included cautionary language that lower-court judges .

鈥淭he right secured by the Second Amendment is not unlimited鈥 and is 鈥渘ot a right to keep and carry any weapon whatsoever in any manner whatsoever and for whatever purpose,鈥 Scalia wrote. His opinion even contained a list of 鈥減resumptively lawful regulatory measures,鈥 such as restrictions on the possession of firearms by felons or bans on carrying them in sensitive places like schools and government buildings.

The at the general acceptance by judges of the constitutionality of laws restricting firearm use.

That discontent culminated in Bruen.

More And More States Have Allowed Concealed Handguns

In 1980, lived in places that either banned concealed carry or had a New York-style 鈥減roper cause鈥 permitting regime. beginning in the late 1980s around the country.

In states where gun rights advocates possess relatively little clout, they hope that Bruen will accomplish through the courts what they have failed to accomplish through the political process.

Today, New York is requiring that people seeking to carry concealed handguns have a 鈥減roper鈥 or 鈥済ood鈥 cause. California, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island have similar laws on the books.

If the court strikes down New York鈥檚 law, Americans in those states could expect an increase in the number of people legally carrying handguns in their communities. Anyone who wants to carry a concealed handgun would have an easier time doing so.

A ‘Text, History And Tradition Test鈥

Bruen could also be a turning point for how judges evaluate all Second Amendment cases 鈥 whether they鈥檙e about assault weapons, tasers or felon-in-possession offenses.

Until now, whether such restrictions are justified by current public safety concerns.

Many gun rights advocates are asking the Supreme Court to reject that approach. Instead, they want judges to decide cases on the unless the judiciary鈥檚 interpretation of the text of the Second Amendment resolves the issue. This is known as the 鈥渢ext, history and tradition鈥 test.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh is credited with this test in a dissent he issued prior to his rise to the Supreme Court.

Justices Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett all have embraced similar judicial philosophies to some degree.

But there鈥檚 a catch: Guns have .

New York鈥檚 regulation has been on the books for over a century and that extended back even further.

If the justices abandon a conventional approach for the text, history and tradition test, I would expect a new round of lawsuits over weapons laws that have already survived prior court challenges. Gun rights advocates would likely, for example, sue over restrictions on or in places where those issues have already been resolved.

This litigation would call on judges to rule on the sole basis of a : comparing modern laws addressing modern guns and contemporary gun violence to the laws, practices and weapons of a bygone era.

Trump鈥檚 Justices May Tip The Scales

The court has three main options.

It could uphold New York鈥檚 law. It could strike it down. Or it could find a middle ground, such as issuing a that punts big questions about gun restrictions down the road.

Trump before nominating Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett 鈥 received the gun group鈥檚 blessing. Chief Justice John Roberts has steered his colleagues toward narrow rulings . But he will hold little sway if the three justices former President Donald Trump appointed team up with Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, the court鈥檚 two other conservatives, on a far-reaching majority opinion.

The ruling will underscore the significance of their presence on the court.

This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license. Read the .

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