The dynamic World War II leader, Gen. George S. Patton, once observed that 鈥淚f everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn鈥檛 thinking.鈥 Nowhere is that warning more applicable than in the way policymakers here in Hawaii have been approaching the future of our economy.

顿别蝉辫颈迟别听the shakeup we鈥檝e seen聽over the global spread of聽, for the most part an era of overly optimistic make-believe over the future health of the economy has infected Hawaii.

We know this because even though leaders at the State Capitol purport to be bracing for economic hits from coronavirus, the kinds of proposals and mandates that are advancing through the Legislature are written as if taxpayers will always be rich enough to tax more and businesses can always handle more overhead.

Capitol building silhouette Hawaii Capitol. 11 jan 2017
Hawaii can ill afford the sweeping packages for minimum wage, child care and other big-ticket items lawmakers are trying to push through. Cory Lum/Civil Beat/2017

Moving forward at the Capitol are measures ,听 of energy production and聽聽on Hawaii, just to name a few, even though we are barely figuring out how to make the pieces fit for our complex bureaucracy. This does not even include聽the heavy price tag聽that Honolulu residents will already be paying at the county level for governance and rail.

These kinds of policies might be justifiable if Hawaii was a booming state with a strong economy, prospering population, and an existing infrastructure that supported growth. But the Aloha State is running close to red line.

Even before the emergence of the coronavirus and聽, both Hawaii and the national economy were already precariously hanging at the edge of a cliff. According to Expatistan鈥檚 March survey of prices, the聽 was more expensive than 90% of cities in the United States, and the estimated monthly cost for a family of four was a whopping $5,464 a month.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revealed that prices in January of this year were up 1.7% overall in Honolulu from last year, with some of the highest prices rising in gasoline (+16%) and the costs of clothing (+12.4%).

If Hawaii鈥檚 economy was doing great,听we wouldn鈥檛 need to force an increase in the minimum wage; companies would already be paying competitively to recruit and retain labor, and people鈥檚 money would have the purchasing power to buy whatever they needed.

Nationally, the Federal Reserve鈥檚聽聽was supposedly to combat market worries over the coronavirus, but President Donald Trump for months had already been haranguing the Fed to lower its rates or聽. This perhaps reveals聽, which appears completely dependent on massive injections of artificial credit聽聽and unprofitable businesses.

What should worry Hawaii locals is the fact that lowering interest rates聽, which has the counterintuitive effect of聽, while outside investors who already have the purchasing power now can exploit the new rates to buy more Hawaii property, adding to our housing scarcity problem.

Lower interest rates also increases the nation鈥檚 total money supply, which sends more money chasing after the same amount of goods, which means Hawaii residents will eventually pay the price in the form of inflation.

Right now, Hawaii residents need to be saving every penny they can spare for an uncertain future.

Who typically benefits the most from lower rates are not average people, but large corporations and wealthy borrowers,听聽affects them. Said another way, central bank injections of credit give money to those who already have money rather than consumers, which means they sharpen, not lessen, wealth inequality.

This is a recipe for disaster that sooner or later will catch up with us.

Right now, Hawaii residents need to be saving every penny they can spare for an uncertain future. Pie-in-the-sky, big ideas by local elected leaders to save the planet and build a future utopia may look great as campaign bullet points on a mailer, but the more the government plans, the less the people are able to plan.

If I were Gov. David Ige or one of our legislators, I would be extremely worried about the perfect storm that is brewing economically around us. Between rising prices, an outflow of Hawaii residents for the mainland, higher compliance costs to doing business, uncertainty over big government projects like rail, and now the coronavirus, to believe that we can keep on as we are doing is foolish.

Our legislators who want to legislate as if Hawaii were California or New York need to realize the difference between us and those states is that those locations have businesses, pre-existing infrastructure and no shortage of affluent individuals to subsidize grandiose government and weather economic storms.

Hawaii doesn鈥檛 have a Silicon Valley or a Wall Street to pay the tab for the kinds of policies our elected officials want, and even if we did,听we鈥檇 probably drive them out of town anyway. We need to dial things down a notch in聽聽and at least wait to see how 2020 turns out before we start disrupting the economy any further.

I for one think the Trump economy聽, and聽, Hawaii鈥檚 economy will go down with it. Crisis has a way of sneaking up on you when you鈥檙e not prepared, but we can take steps now to soften the blow.

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About the Author

  • Danny de Gracia

    Danny de Gracia is a resident of Waipahu, a political scientist and an ordained minister.

    Danny holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science and minor in Public Administration from UT San Antonio, 2001; a Master of Arts in聽 Political Science (concentration International Organizations) and minor in Humanities from Texas State University, 2002.

    He received his聽Doctor of Theology from Andersonville Theological Seminary in 2013 and Doctor of Ministry in 2014.

    Danny received his Ordination from United Fellowship of Christ Ministries International, (Non-Denominational Christian), in 2002.

    Danny is also a member of the Waipahu Neighborhood Board, a position he’s held since 2023. His opinions are strictly his own.