Gabbard Staying In The Race Despite Finishing Far Behind In New Hampshire
The Hawaii congresswoman invested a lot of resources in New Hampshire with hopes of outperforming the polls and keeping her struggling campaign afloat.
MANCHESTER, N.H. 鈥 Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard didn鈥檛 even wait Tuesday for the primary results to come in before boarding a plane for South Carolina to continue her presidential campaign.
In New Hampshire, the first primary in the nation, Gabbard received about 3% of the vote, finishing seventh in the field of Democrats who want to oust President Donald Trump from the White House this fall.
That ranked her behind the eventual winner, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, followed by former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Others ahead of Gabbard included Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and billionaire businessman Tom Steyer.
As the results rolled in and two other poorly performing candidates dropped out 鈥斅 entrepreneur Andrew Yang and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet 鈥 Gabbard tried to strike a defiant tone with her supporters.
鈥淣o matter what happens here tonight, I want you to know that we have already been victorious,鈥 Gabbard said.
She then noted that her campaign has been significantly outspent by her opponents, some of them billionaires, and that she鈥檚 been the victim of smear campaigns that she says aimed to silence her message.
鈥淥ur democracy belongs to us, don鈥檛 ever forget that,鈥 Gabbard said. 鈥淣o matter what the noise is on TV, no matter what the pundits tell you, no matter what people tell you you cannot do or what we cannot do as Americans, remind them and never forget that we the people determine our future.鈥
Gabbard declined to speak to Civil Beat after she addressed her supporters.
鈥淥ur democracy belongs to us, don鈥檛 ever forget that.” 鈥 Tulsi Gabbard
Gabbard bet big on New Hampshire.
The congresswoman spent more time campaigning here than any other 2020 Democratic candidate.
She moved to the Granite State in December and logged nearly 100 days on the ground. In addition to town halls and meet and greets, she hosted events in which she skied with supporters and surfed the frigid waters of the Atlantic.
Gabbard invested more than just time here. According to compiled by The New York Times, Gabbard spent more than $870,000 on television ads in New Hampshire.
She also spent big on billboards and other signs that she used to paper some of the state鈥檚 busiest intersections and thoroughfares.
Tried To Buck Partisan Labels
Dante Scala, who鈥檚 a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, said that if Gabbard hit 10% here it would have been 鈥渁 pretty big accomplishment鈥 given her previous poll numbers, but that it still wouldn鈥檛 have been enough to buoy her campaign.
When asked what Gabbard鈥檚 outlook is after New Hampshire, Scala gave a two-word answer: 鈥淣ot good.鈥
鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to see where she goes from here because New Hampshire has some particular quirks that you鈥檙e not going to see in other states that you鈥檙e competing in,鈥 Scala said. 鈥淭his could be as good as it gets.鈥
Gabbard tried to take advantage of New Hampshire鈥檚 unique electorate, where more than 42% of registered voters are so-called 鈥渦ndecided,鈥 meaning they aren鈥檛 affiliated with a single party and can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary.
She built a coalition of supporters that defies easy definition. They鈥檙e a mix of far-left progressives, libertarian-leaning independents and disenchanted Republicans, many of whom voted for Donald Trump in 2016.
Her appeal, they say, comes from her willingness to set aside partisan labels and have open dialogue, even if it鈥檚 with people she disagrees with.
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She became a hero for some when she resigned from the Democratic National Committee in 2016 to endorse Sanders over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
She鈥檚 continued to buck the party establishment and carve her own path, including when she filed a $50 million defamation lawsuit against Clinton after she implied Gabbard was a 鈥渇avorite of the Russians鈥 and being groomed by Republicans to run as a third-party candidate.
鈥淚t鈥檚 really hard to make that case for electability if you don鈥檛 do well here.鈥 鈥 David Skrabel, Gabbard supporter
Gabbard also makes frequent appearances on Fox News, something she says shows her willingness to cross party lines and speak to all Americans despite their political affiliations.
The night before the primary, for instance, she went on Sean Hannity鈥檚 show to talk about on drug legalization, her recent call for DNC Chairman Tom Perez鈥檚 resignation and of Trump鈥檚 decision to fire Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman and U.S Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland, two critical impeachment witnesses.
Electability A Big Issue For Some
But as much time as Gabbard spent in New Hampshire she couldn鈥檛 convince enough voters of one thing 鈥 that she could beat Donald Trump.
It was top of mind for a number of New Hampshire voters, especially those who were still undecided.
Jeanette Pratt-Tello and her partner, Paula, moved to Wolfeboro, New Hampshire last year from Massachusetts after decades working as educators.
At a Warren rally on Monday, Jeanette said she still had yet to make up her mind about who to vote for. She liked some of what she heard from Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Steyer. She said she also liked what she heard from Gabbard, but not enough to vote for her.
鈥淭here are so many choices and there鈥檚 so much at stake,鈥 Pratt-Tellos said. 鈥淚 think Tulsi has a lot of great things to say, I just don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 her time yet. It really comes down to electability and who鈥檚 going to be able to kick Trump鈥檚 ass.鈥
Gabbard has struggled mightily in the polls. Nationally she 1.4% on average, according to Real Clear Politics. In New Hampshire she , on occasion hitting as high as 6% or 7% support in a handful of surveys.
The Democratic National Committee recently changed its thresholds for qualifying for the next round of debates. Candidates could qualify if they hit 10% in four separate polls or 12% in surveys taken in Nevada or South Carolina. They could also qualify if they received at least one delegate in the early states of Iowa or New Hampshire.
Gabbard all but gave up campaigning in Iowa, where she convinced few caucus-goers to support her and won no delegates to the Democratic National Convention.
The congresswoman also lags far behind in fundraising. In 2019, Federal Election Commission records show she raised a total of $12.6 million. That鈥檚 a far cry from the $109 million in contributions to Sanders or the $28.9 million raised by Klobuchar.
David Skrabel of Portsmouth was a Sanders supporter in 2016 but switched his allegiances to Gabbard after she announced her candidacy early last year. Since then he鈥檚 been volunteering for the campaign.
The realities of Tuesday鈥檚 results weren鈥檛 lost on Skrabel.
鈥淚f she doesn鈥檛 overperform here then obviously that makes it harder because, as people like to say, Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents,鈥 Skrabel said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really hard to make that case for electability if you don鈥檛 do well here.鈥
He still hopes there鈥檚 a place for Gabbard in the national conversation, particularly when it comes to ending U.S. involvement in foreign wars and taking on the military industrial complex. Even if she doesn鈥檛 win the nomination, just letting her speak would be victory enough.
鈥淗er being up on the debate stage is still a win for us,鈥 he said. 鈥淭hat means we鈥檙e still talking about getting out of Afghanistan and all the other places we have no business being in. We鈥檒l still have someone who鈥檚 going to call bullshit on the corporatists.鈥
Polls Poorly In South Carolina
Meanwhile in South Carolina, Gabbard has a lot of ground to make up and not a lot of time to do it. The South Carolina primary is on Feb. 29, just over two weeks away.
The state looks much different than New Hampshire. Nearly one-in-three voters is a person of color in the Palmetto State, and the black vote can make or break a candidate in the Democratic primary. The electorate in New Hampshire is largely white.
Gabbard polls poorly in South Carolina. According to surveys tracked by Real Clear Politics, the congresswoman is in seventh place there with a of 2.5%.
That leaves her far behind the candidates above her, such as聽 Biden, who does well with black voters, and Steyer, who鈥檚 surged in recent polls after dumping huge sums of cash into the state.
She isn’t campaigning in Nevada, which holds a caucus on Feb. 22.
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About the Author
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Nick Grube is a reporter for Civil Beat. You can reach him by email at nick@civilbeat.org or follow him on Twitter at . You can also reach him by phone at 808-377-0246.