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Consider this: Oil and gas are responsible for more than 60% of Russia’s exports and represent some 30% of its GDP. Those statistics reveal how threatening a global shift from fossil fuels to renewable forms of energy must appear to Vladimir Putin. It represents an existential threat to Russia’s economy.

After years of climate change denial, Putin made a sudden about face and formally signed the Paris Climate Agreement this September, but the agreement allows countries to set their own goals, and Russia’s climate pledge is notoriously weak. The climate tracker labels it “critically insufficient.”

Here’s another statistic verified by thousands of scientific studies: A 4 degrees Celsius rise in global temperature by the end of this century is possible, even likely, given our ongoing consumption of fossil fuels and the world’s still rising rate of CO2 emissions. This temperature change will render huge swaths of earth on either side of the equator uninhabitable.

Not every part of the globe will be similarly affected, however. Geographically, Russia is the largest country in the world, and most of it lies above the latitude of 50 degrees north. The Arctic Circle runs through the middle of the entire northern half of the country. Because of climate change, vast stretches of now frigid, uninhabited wasteland will become lush forest and potential farmland.

That will also be the case for Alaska and northern Canada, but the continental United States? It will be mostly desert with occasional, torrential floods. So will the European Union and much of China.

A map published by The Guardian on May 18 of this year illustrates these sobering differences that will be grim reality for our grandchildren. In Hawaii they will be dealing with a 3-to-6-foot sea level rise, likely drought, and ever more frequent hurricanes.

Trump A Russian Stooge?

It’s not hard to connect the dots and understand why Putin might want a climate change denier and fossil fuel promoter like Donald Trump in the White House. Slowing or even preventing a switch from oil to renewables preserves the current Russian economy. Long-term, it will greatly weaken and possibly destroy Russia’s chief rivals while enhancing the livability of much of Russia.

Trump’s baffling behavior — like lowering emission standards for automobiles despite the wishes of Hawaii, a dozen other states and even several auto manufacturers — should be seen in this context. You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist. It makes little difference whether Trump is an actual Russian agent or simply a stooge who acts out of ignorance and a lifetime of consequence-free entitlement. The outcome for the planet is the same.

Many still think in terms of the cold war when the Soviet Union was a communist state and a formidable rival, but Russia today is actually a bare knuckle, capitalist oligarchy, a petro-state with more in common with the Koch brothers than with Marxist ideologues. And despite its vast size, Russia has less than half the population of the United States. Its economy is only the 16th largest, behind Italy and Brazil. It is no match for the U.S. in a direct confrontation.

But Putin has proven very adept at asymmetrical warfare. His use of fake news (or “disinformation,” to use the old KGB term) is well documented. So is his use of Russian military troops masquerading as civilian-dressed rebels to take over Crimea.

Climate change and indeed a de facto “Climate War” deserve to be seen in this context. So should the presence of Donald Trump in the White House. So should the everyday actions and upcoming votes of each and every one of us. A 4-degree rise in global temperatures is not inevitable. It depends on what we do, whom we elect, and the national and international polices we pursue.

In a global climate war, there are no non-combatants.