In voting, it doesn鈥檛 really matter which party you register with on paper.
叠别蝉颈诲别蝉,听聽don鈥檛 even register voters by party. What really matters is what political scientists like myself call your 鈥溾 鈥 your psychological attachment to a political group, such as聽听辞谤听.
That鈥檚 why political scientists聽, 鈥淕enerally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what?鈥
Our goal is to find out how you see yourself 鈥 essentially, which team are you on? This is how many people make sense of the political world.
American Independents?
According to the聽, the identity that people choose most often is actually 鈥渋ndependent鈥 鈥 not Democratic or Republican. In 2017, 42 percent of Americans chose this label 鈥 up from the low 30s just 14 years ago, in 2004.
However, three-quarters of these 鈥渋ndependents鈥 admit, when asked, that they lean toward favoring the Democratic or Republican Party. Judging by how they vote or what they think of national political leaders, the truth is that these 鈥渓eaners鈥 really are聽. Apparently, many people who like to think of themselves as independent-minded and free of party influence just aren鈥檛.
Only about 10 percent of Americans are what we call 鈥減ure independents鈥 鈥 that is, people who identify as independents and claim not to favor either of the two major parties. Nor has that percentage grown in recent years. This means that the vast majority of Americans 鈥 consistently around 90 percent 鈥 are partisans.
And which party do they favor 鈥 Democratic or Republican?
The Democratic Party.
In a 2017 Gallup poll, 47 percent of Americans either called themselves Democrats or admitted leaning toward the Democratic Party, versus 42 percent for Republicans and 11 percent independents.
In fact, there have聽聽than Republicans in the American electorate 鈥 with rare and very brief exceptions 鈥 ever since Gallup began polling party identification in the 1930s.
It鈥檚 important to remember that identifying with a party is not the same as voting for that party. In fact, Democrats are less likely than Republicans to turn out to vote 鈥 particularly in聽. This is because聽聽and other Democratic constituencies tend to be more engaged by the spectacle of a presidential election.
As of last month, though, two-thirds of Democrats say that they are 鈥溾 in 2018. Fewer Republicans express such enthusiasm about voting in this year鈥檚 midterm, for the first time since 2006. In that year, a 鈥渂lue wave鈥 swept Democrats back into control of the U.S. House and Senate.
Democrats hoping for another 鈥渂lue wave鈥 in 2018 have plenty of company.
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