When Keith Vieira, a long-time Hawaii tourism executive appeared on a at the East-West Center last week, he was glad to hear from a fellow panelist that the likelihood of Hawaii getting nuked by North Korea was zero.

In a market where 98 percent of visitors are leisure travelers, he said, any risk of a nuclear attack from Kim Jong Un could be bad news for the visitor industry.

鈥淓ven a 1 percent chance would easily stop the flow鈥 of tourists to Hawaii, said Vieira, a former senior vice president of聽. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e simply not going to travel to places where you鈥檙e concerned about safety, and if you鈥檙e an Asian traveler, it鈥檚 multiplied quite a lot.鈥

Vieira鈥檚 comments underscore a potentially big issue facing executives in Hawaii鈥檚 key industry: even if the risk of a nuclear attack is low, the risk is greater that fears of an attack can drive tourists away. So far, executives say, that hasn鈥檛 happened.

As people in Hawaii wonder if they might be in the scope of a North Korean nuclear missle, U.S. Air military forces are practicing attack capabilities like this bombing exercise at the Pilsung Range, Republic of Korea on Aug. 30. US Pacific Command

鈥淲e鈥檙e definitely monitoring it,鈥 said Jay Talwar, senior vice president of marketing for the , which works with the state鈥檚 Hawaii Tourism Authority.

Talwar said the bureau regularly checks in with travel wholesalers and other customers, scans social media and generally watches for signs that negative news is alarming travelers.

So what have they seen?

鈥淔ortunately, nothing yet,鈥 Talwar said.

The , meanwhile, is stressing the low risks of attack.

鈥淚t is important for leisure and business travelers to know that the threat of a missile attack against Hawaii by North Korea is a very unlikely possibility at this time, according to the latest information provided by the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency,鈥 said George D. Szigeti, HTA鈥檚 president and chief executive.

鈥淲e encourage travelers and groups to go forward with confidence in the planning and booking of their trips to the Hawaiian Islands.鈥

It鈥檚 not that there hasn鈥檛 been alarming news about Hawaii getting hit with a nuclear bomb. Last week, the University of Hawaii made international after university officials sent students and faculty an email with instructions on what to do in case of a nuclear strike. That followed a flurry of national news in September, when Hawaii legislators held a secret meeting to prepare for a nuclear attack by North Korea.

Vieira says there鈥檚 nothing wrong with lawmakers discussing planning for the worst, but holding a secret meeting to do so doesn鈥檛 instill confidence among potential travelers, he said.

鈥淲hen you make it secret is when people get nervous,鈥 he said.

Visitors enjoy the sun on deck at Ohana Waikiki West pooliside recliners. 2 dec 2014. photograph cory Lum
Visitors enjoy the sun on the deck at a Waikiki hotel. Tourism officials say so far they don’t see people worrying too much about a North Korea attack. Cory Lum/Civil Beat

One such case of nerves showed up in a thread on the Tripadvisor.com website last month in a post titled, “nervous about world events.”

鈥淲e are planning our 35th anniversary trip to Hawaii in October,鈥 wrote a user named from the Chicago area. 鈥榃ith today’s threat that an H bomb could be tested in the Pacific Ocean, I’m getting quite nervous. What are others planning on doing – stay with original plans on going or rescheduling when tempers calm?鈥

The vast majority of responses shrugged off the supposed threat.

鈥淲hen the name-calling, insults, and threats started becoming more frequent and outlandish just prior to our end-of-August聽聽trip, we had a moment of wondering if we should cancel,鈥 said a user named Greenvalleyfun. 鈥淲e didn’t and had such a wonderful time!鈥

Not everyone is so blas茅. Riki Ellison is the is the founder and chairman of the , a nonprofit that advocates for stronger U.S. missile defense systems.聽 Ellison has been urging the enhancement of the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, now a test site, to serve as a defense site to augment protection provided to Hawaii by the U.S. Northern Command.

Ellison said that even if the likelihood of a nuclear attack is small, the magnitude of harm caused by a nuclear weapon is so great that it makes sense to mitigate the risk with an upgraded system. He likened government officials not wanting to upgrade missile defenses on Kauai for fear of scaring tourists to the fictional officials of a seaside town in the movie 鈥淛aws.鈥

鈥淚t鈥檚 exactly like 鈥楯aws,鈥欌 he said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a shark in the water, and the guy doesn鈥檛 want to close the beach.”

鈥淚t鈥檚 much worse than 鈥楯aws,鈥欌 he added. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just one person being eaten by a shark.鈥

So far, the numbers show travelers are not worried. Visitors to Hawaii spent $1.39 billion in August 2017, an increase of 6.1 percent compared to August 2016, according to HTA鈥檚 latest numbers. Total visitor arrivals rose 4.8 percent to 818,581 visitors in August.

鈥淚t鈥檚 exactly like 鈥楯aws.’ There鈥檚 a shark in the water, and the guy doesn鈥檛 want to close the beach.” — Defense industry lobbyist Riki Ellison

Trevor Ozawa, the Honolulu City Council member who represents Waikiki, said Hawaii鈥檚 numbers are up because, in an increasingly unsafe world, Hawaii is viewed as safe.

鈥淚 think that鈥檚 the point,鈥 he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 all relative.鈥

Ozawa agreed with Vieira that the idea of a nuclear strike on Hawaii is far-fetched.

Vieira said people can posit any number of hypotheticals to worry about. He pointed to comments made last week by Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center, who said the risk of an attack by North Korea is virtually nil.

鈥淥ur goal is to really stick to the facts,鈥 Vieira said.

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