In Hawaii, an island oasis for Democrats, Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell is about as popular as Republican President Donald Trump.
And it looks like Caldwell might have the rail project to blame for it.
Trump has both here and across the U.S. But Caldwell is right there with him, according to the The Civil Beat Poll.
The survey聽found that only 32 percent of the state’s registered voters polled had a positive view of Caldwell, a lifelong Democrat who once served in the Hawaii Legislature.
The mayor鈥檚 statewide approval rating is identical to Trump’s at 32 percent.
And Caldwell鈥檚 favorability dips even farther among his constituents living on Oahu.
Civil Beat surveyed 956 registered voters in Hawaii via landline (67 percent) and cellphone (33 percent). The survey took place from May 18-24. The statewide margin of error is 3.2 percent. The poll included 629 respondents from Oahu. The margin of error from that sample is 3.9 percent. How We Did It
Only 31 percent of respondents聽on Oahu have a positive opinion of Caldwell. More than half 鈥 about 51 percent 鈥 have a negative view. Voters living in areas that won鈥檛 directly benefit from the rail project have a more negative view of Caldwell than those who do.
The rail project, which was estimated to cost about $5.2 billion in 2012, has ballooned to nearly $10 billion during his time as mayor.
鈥淗e鈥檚 having to do a lot of things that are tough right now, especially with rail,鈥 said Matthew Fitch, executive director of Merriman River Group, which conducted The Civil Beat Poll. 鈥淚t鈥檚 just a super hard period for him at the moment. Maybe once rail is up and running people will feel differently, but right now all they see is the pain and the cost.鈥
Nearly 87 percent of Oahu respondents don鈥檛 like the current state of the rail project.
Fitch said that doesn鈥檛 mean they don鈥檛 support the concept, it鈥檚 just that the execution has people worried.
鈥淩ight now rail is a troubled enterprise,鈥 Fitch said. 鈥淣obody likes rail. Nobody.鈥
Caldwell’s approval rating was 54 percent in 2015. The precipitous drop might not bode well for future political aspirations he might have.
About 48 percent percent of those polled on Oahu said Caldwell is doing a 鈥渂ad job鈥 at managing the rail project. Forty percent say he鈥檚 done his 鈥渂est in a bad situation.鈥
Few, however, said the mayor has done a good job of managing what is considered the largest infrastructure project in Hawaii鈥檚 history.聽Only 10 percent of Oahu voters said they like how he鈥檚 handled the adversity.
Dennis Callan, of Makiki, participated in The Civil Beat Poll and is the co-founder of Stop Rail Now. He鈥檚 also served on the Manoa Neighborhood Board and on an advisory committee to the Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization.
Callan describes himself as a 鈥渓eft-wing Democrat鈥 who supports public rail transit. He just doesn鈥檛 think it鈥檚 the right solution for Honolulu and also blames Caldwell for the project’s problems.
鈥淩ail is a disaster,鈥 Callan said. 鈥淚鈥檝e been opposed to rail for 30 years. It鈥檚 just not the appropriate solution for this island. I鈥檓 a big fan of rail for big, dense cities.鈥
Caldwell failed to convince聽legislators this year to once again extend a general excise tax surcharge to help pay for the anticipated cost overruns. He now faces the possibility of having to use city property taxes and other revenue sources 鈥 such as 鈥 to help bridge the funding gap, including operating costs.
He鈥檚 also holding out hope that legislators will hold a special session to reconsider extending the GET surcharge or develop other funding sources. Officials have said the project, which is short about $3 billion, will run out of money in January if new funds aren鈥檛 secured.
The Civil Beat Poll gauged voter preferences for how they鈥檇 prefer to deal with the shortfall, including the options of extending the GET surcharge, raising residential property taxes, raising hotel taxes or some combination of the three.
Most people polled on Oahu, about 30 percent, said they鈥檇 like the tourism industry to help foot the bill through increased hotel taxes. The next best option, according to those polled, would be a balance of the various tax proposals.
The least desirable option, by far, is to increase property taxes for rail. Only 1 percent of Oahu voters thought that would be a good idea.
Eighteen percent of Oahu voters who were polled said they did not want any sort of tax increase, even if it meant that the rail project would not be finished.
Marilyn Requena is a 70-year-old retiree who lives in Aiea and describes herself as 鈥渢he last Republican liberal in captivity.鈥 The poll respondent voted for Barack Obama twice, and has negative views of both Trump and Caldwell.
Requena鈥檚 displeasure with Caldwell, however, isn鈥檛 necessarily tied to rail. Rather, it鈥檚 her perception that he has a pro-development stance, and she鈥檚 particularly concerned about projects on Oahu鈥檚 North Shore.
Requena has mixed feelings about the rail project, which she feels has been managed poorly.
She doesn鈥檛 like the impact that construction has had on businesses in her community. But she also understands that when she鈥檚 no longer able to drive, the rail line will connect her to other parts of the island.
Requena would like to see the project completed, but she doesn鈥檛 want her property taxes increased to do it. She鈥檇 prefer a mix of other taxes increased, such as the transient accommodations tax paid at hotels or the GET surcharge.
鈥淣obody should have an unfair burden,鈥 she said. 鈥淚鈥檓 a retiree on a fixed income. I really can鈥檛 afford to have the taxes go up much more.鈥
Not everyone has a beef with Caldwell. Poll respondent Robert Dusendschon also lives in Aiea, and is an ardent supporter of the rail project, although he admits that the traffic congestion caused by construction has tried his patience.
鈥淚t鈥檚 been absolute hell on Kam Highway trying to get anywhere in Aiea and Pearl City,鈥 Dusendschon said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 just something we have to live with. But, man, when you鈥檙e sitting in traffic sweating and you鈥檙e not moving you want to yell at somebody.鈥
Caldwell could be聽an easy target for Dusendschon’s anger, but he doesn鈥檛 blame the mayor.
Dusendschon thinks Caldwell has been doing a good job regarding rail. He said it鈥檚 similar to the H3 interstate project, which also had a lot of detractors when it was being built.
鈥淗e seems to be a real level-headed, cool politician,鈥 Dusendschon said.聽鈥淗e鈥檚 in a tough spot because of the cost overruns, but at least he鈥檚 not wishy-washy about it. He鈥檚 a supporter. He鈥檚 doing what needs to be done to get the project pushed through. I give him a lot of credit for just being consistent.鈥
But don鈥檛 compare Caldwell to Trump, he added. 鈥淭hat guy鈥檚 a nut job.鈥
Coming Friday: Voters weigh in on President Donald Trump and several of his recent policy decisions.聽
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About the Author
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Nick Grube is a reporter for Civil Beat. You can reach him by email at nick@civilbeat.org or follow him on Twitter at . You can also reach him by phone at 808-377-0246.