In the coming weeks Hawaii lawmakers will be wrestling with ways to cut roughly $250 million from the state鈥檚 overall budget for the next two years thanks to lower than expected general fund revenues.

The state on Monday lowered its general fund growth forecast to just 2.5 percent (from 3 percent) for fiscal year 2017, which ends June 30, and adjusted it down to 4 percent (from 5 percent) for fiscal years 2018 and 2019. The council slightly increased the forecast to 4.5 percent (from 4.4 percent) for 2020 to 2023.

The panel of economists, accountants and others who meet quarterly to make their projections, which Gov. David Ige鈥檚 administration and the Legislature rely on to develop the state spending plan. General fund revenues for 2017 are now projected to come in at about $6 billion.

Council on Revenues Chair Kurt Kawafuchi discussion. 13 march2 2017
Council on Revenues Chair Kurt Kawafuchi leads the discussion Monday. Cory Lum/Civil Beat

In a rare move, two of the council鈥檚 seven members voted against the recommendation for 2017. Marilyn Niwao thought the 2.5 percent forecast was too high and Jack Suyderhoud thought it was too low.

鈥淲e鈥檝e had a good run,鈥 Council Chair Kurt Kawafuchi said about the economy in an interview after the nearly two-hour meeting in Honolulu. 鈥淏ut we鈥檙e expecting it to slow down.鈥

The House is expected to send its version of Ige鈥檚 proposed two-year budget to the Senate on Wednesday.

Rep. Sylvia Luke, who chairs the House Finance Committee, said she was anticipating a lowered budget forecast. Nathan Eagle/Civil Beat

The House draft, approved last week by the Finance Committee, chaired by Rep. Sylvia Luke, cut $500 million from the governor鈥檚 $28.6 billion spending proposal, nearly $15 billion of which is general funds.

鈥淭his is actually what we have expected,鈥 Luke said in an interview at her office after the council meeting. She said her staff has been monitoring general excise tax collections over the past few months and has seen them remain flat, with overall state revenues propped up by income and hotel taxes.

But she said the 鈥減uzzling thing鈥 is the overall strength of other economic indicators like property sales, construction permits, low unemployment levels and record tourism spending.

The council did not have answers for that, nor did Luke鈥檚 counterpart in the Senate, Jill Tokuda, who chairs the Ways and Means Committee.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of head scratching going on,鈥 Tokuda said.

Sen. Jill Tokuda, chair of the Ways and Means Committee, said lawmakers will be looking at “what’s nice to have” versus “what we need to have.” Nathan Eagle/Civil Beat

More details of the House version of the budget are expected to come out later this week when the full chamber votes on it, but Luke said the budget her committee passed trimmed $80 million by not paying down the state鈥檚 massive unfunded liability for future retirement benefits promised to public workers as fast as Ige had wanted.

She said other savings were made by nixing tens of millions of dollars that had been allocated for 鈥渋nnovation grants鈥 to public schools and the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

Tokuda鈥檚 Ways and Means Committee will work on the Senate version of the bill, factoring in the council鈥檚 latest forecast, over the next few weeks. Differences between the House and Senate versions will then be hashed out by a joint conference committee later in April.

鈥淚t鈥檚 always very humbling when you find out that you have just over $250 million less to work with on your budget than you did the day before,鈥 Tokuda said. 鈥淲hile I鈥檓 sure it could鈥檝e been worse, it鈥檚 definitely going to make things a lot more challenging as we head into the preparation of the Senate version of the budget.鈥

Council on Revenues Chair Kurt Kawafuchi. 13 march 2017
The Council on Revenues聽lowered its quarterly forecast for state general fund growth Monday. Cory Lum/Civil Beat

Tokuda pointed at the looming 鈥渦nknowns鈥 that could further impact the budget over the next several weeks, particularly contracts for public worker unions that are now under negotiation.

鈥淚t is about what you can sustain going forward,鈥 she said, explaining that lawmakers will be evaluating 鈥渨hat we need to have鈥 versus 鈥渨hat鈥檚 nice to have.鈥

This was the council’s second consecutive quarterly where it downgraded its general fund growth forecast. In January, the council dropped its 5.5 percent expected growth rate for 2017 to 3 percent.

The council鈥檚 next meeting is in May, when it could adjust its forecast again.

Support Independent, Unbiased News

Civil Beat is a nonprofit, reader-supported newsroom based in 贬补飞补颈驶颈. When you give, your donation is combined with gifts from thousands of your fellow readers, and together you help power the strongest team of investigative journalists in the state.

 

About the Author