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You might be surprised to hear this, but we are on the cusp of making progress in reducing gun violence in this country.

Yes, it’s true that Monday, a week after the murders of 49 people in Orlando and four days after a 15-hour sort-of filibuster by Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., the GOP-controlled U.S. Senate failed once again to pass a gun-control measure.

True, senators did exactly as they did after the San Bernardino, California, shootings in December (14 killed), and after the Sandy Hook school shootings in Connecticut in 2013 (26 dead, included 20 children): They voted down gun-control measures largely along party lines, with the GOP killing two measures introduced by Democrats, and Democrats returning the favor.

And true, on these same lines last year, just after the Charleston, South Carolina church shooting (nine killed), the U.S. House of Representatives a ban on federal research into gun violence. That ban has been in place at the behest of the National Rifle Association for 20 years.

The NRA got its captive Congress members to block funding in 1996, after a study sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that having a gun in the home triples the risk of homicide or suicide. Even though President Obama ordered the CDC to start studying gun violence again in 2013, after Sandy Hook, GOP members of Congress  any funding for such efforts.

Heads In The Sand

In a perverse way, Monday’s votes confirmed what has long been obvious: Congress as it now exists will not do anything to address the fact we’re awash in guns, no matter how many innocent people die, no matter how big a majority of the public favors tighter restrictions, no matter how many survivors of mass shootings travel to Capitol Hill to plead for action.

To be fair, a group of five senators, led by Susan Collins, R-Maine, continues trying to work out a compromise, but it’s hard to see, in this highly polarized political season, how they’ll find a way forward.

But there is another path and it winds through state capitals such as Sacramento and Honolulu.

Consider: On Friday, the California State Legislature voted to establish the California Firearm Violence Research Center. The center will conduct epidemiological research on factors related to gun violence. That research will use California data, but the findings will be of obvious utility to gun-control discussions around the whole country. The $5 million a year California will devote to the study isn’t much compared to what the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention could do, but it is a start.

Congress as it now exists will not do anything to address the fact we’re awash in guns, no matter how many innocent people die.

Meanwhile, in Honolulu, the Hawaii Legislature has sent Gov. David Ige two measures, now awaiting his signature, to strengthen gun control. One bill would block those arrested for misdemeanor stalking or sexual assault from owning a gun. The second would link the registry of Hawaii gun owners to the FBI “Rap Back” criminal database, to allow the state to revoke the gun permits of Hawaii residents who are charged with crimes elsewhere in the U.S.

Hawaii would be the first state to link its registry to the FBI database. Then, whenever someone were to be arrested and charged with a crime, the Rap Back system automatically would notify the police department in the county in which the person registered his or her guns. That would allow the police to determine whether the offense legally bars that person from owning firearms. The bill is backed both by the state attorney general and by the Honolulu Police Department.

Both Hawaii bills are strenuously opposed by the NRA.

It Really Is About Guns

In the debates at the national level, opponents of gun control regularly argue that the issue is terrorism or Islam or mental illness — anything but guns. But in reality, the issues are simple: We have far too many guns in this country. We make it far too easy for people to buy them who shouldn’t. And we have a powerful political machine devoted to blocking any and all gun-safety measures, even those supported by a majority of NRA members.

In reality, in the U.S., there is a link between terrorism and our lax gun laws.

A now deceased al Qaeda spokesman, in a , noted that fact in calling on would-be jihadists to take advantage of U.S. gun laws.

“America is absolutely awash with easily obtainable firearms,” said al Qaeda’s Adam Gadahn. “You can go down to a gun show at the local convention center and come away with a fully automatic assault rifle, without a background check and most likely without having to show an identification card. So what are you waiting for?”

From 2002 and 2014, according to by FiveThirtyEight’s Carl Bialik, 85 percent of people killed by terrorists in the U.S. were killed using guns. Terrorists use guns because they’re so easy for them to acquire.

But there’s an even bigger problem than terrorists and other mass killers: Though mass shootings in the U.S. have , they still account for much less than one percent of gun deaths in recent years.

Dealing In Daily Death

The same weekend as 50 people (including gunman Omar Mateen) were killed in the Orlando night club massacre, an even larger number of people across the U.S. likely died in other, more routine shootings: , accidents and so on. Through Monday, have been killed this year with guns in the U.S., an average of 37 a day.

We cannot meaningfully address gun violence by terrorists without addressing the day-in, day-out gun violence that continues claiming so many lives.

Even with the NRA-sponsored pressure against gun research, studies have shown that homicide rates are higher in states with  and that are much likelier to carry guns outside the home and to express a pattern of angry, impulsive behavior.

We need better research on gun violence to understand how best to address it. California has taken a small step in that direction.

And we need the example of states with reasonable but tough restrictions that can serve as a model for the rest of the country. Gov. Ige should waste no time signing the two measures that the Hawaii Legislature has put before him.

Doing so could have repercussions far beyond Hawaii’s shores. In a CNN/ORC poll released Monday, and taken after the Orlando shootings,  (with a 3 percent margin of error) supported expanded background checks and strong majorities supported many other gun control measures.

If Congress won’t act, it’s up to our states to take the lead.