Study: Hawaii Could Be Devastated By A Tsunami Within 50 Years
There’s past evidence of mega-tsunamis triggered by massive earthquakes off the coast of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands.
On the south side of the Hawaiian island of Kauai lies Makauwahi, a 聽where scientists have聽聽that struck Hawaii about 500 years ago.
Triggered by a 9.0-magnitude earthquake off the coast of the Aleutian Islands in Alaska, the tsunami likely聽聽鈥 enough to devastate Hawaii鈥檚 coastal populations, infrastructure and economy today.
A new study says there鈥檚 a chance it will happen again within 50 years.
, published in the , involved a team of researchers at The University of Hawaii at Manoa who analyzed fault length and plate-convergence rates to estimate the likelihood of a mega-earthquake (magnitude 9 or greater) in the Aleutian Islands.
The findings suggest there is a of a mega-earthquake striking the Aleutians and causing a tsunami in Hawaii in the next 50 years. If and when it happens, it could cause some 聽and affect 400,000 residents and tourists.
Lead author聽, a geophysicist at the UH School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, said in a statement that he and his team devised their model precisely because Hawaii .
鈥淣ecessity is the mother of invention,鈥 Butler said.
The researchers validated their model by 聽since 1900 鈥斅燢amchatka, 1952; Chile, 1960; Alaska, 1964; Sumatra-Andaman, 2004; and Tohoku, 2011鈥 as well as evidence found in geological samples, including some from the Makauwahi sinkhole.
The team said it hopes the findings will help Hawaii officials prioritize the potential of a tsunami threat with other risks. It is also considering ways to estimate the threat of smaller-magnitude earthquakes in the Pacific.
