Neal Milner: The Focus is on Donald, But the Smart Money is on Jeb
As a bombastic attention-getter straight out of the operatic mold, Trump has thwarted the party regulars. But they usually win in the end.
Two very different storylines bookend Donald Trump鈥檚 presidential campaign.
One is his perceived unelectability. Microsoft鈥檚 prediction market, typically as accurate as any other institution in forecasting the outcome of events, continues to see with Trump considerably behind.
People in these markets are betting real money on Jeb.
The other comes from the advice of a character in Jonathon Lethem鈥檚 short story, 鈥淟ucky Alan鈥:
鈥淵ou should write an opera about Donald Trump,鈥 the man says to his friend, a New York theater director. 听鈥淗e is what passes for a hero these days.鈥
Trump for sure is a character right out of grand opera. He is boisterous, emotional, bombastic and full of braggadocio. Opera is much more about sound than substance.听It is character-driven, and Trump鈥檚 campaign is about as character-driven as it gets.
These two views of Trump are based on different perspectives and, to a great extent, on different information.
鈥淗e does not have the kind of infrastructure we ordinarily do in presidential campaigns. The whole campaign is based on him.鈥 鈥 Republican strategist talking about Trump
The operatic, character-driven view is, of course, the sexiest. It is also far more compelling at this stage of the campaign than it usually is because, oh my goodness, The Donald is actually doing better than all of the other candidates.
The operatic view is about the here and now.听In contrast, the predictor stresses regular patterns that transcend any one political race.
Is the character of Donald Trump powerful enough to overcome these usual patterns and forces, which are the ones the prediction market people tend to rely on? To find out, let鈥檚 take a closer look at where each of the two stories takes us.
Maybe This Race is Different
The operatic approach to understanding Trump is ahistorical.听It downplays the role of regular patterns 鈥 things that usually matter in nomination races.听That does not make this view wrong, but it does invite skepticism.
If you take history and solid political analysis into account, there are strong reasons to look beyond our everyday obsession with Trump.
The prediction markets certainly don鈥檛 favor Jeb Bush because his campaign has been so successful.听In fact it has been awful.听They are betting that the usual patterns will emerge to stop Trump.听Jeb is precisely the sort of candidate that such patterns favor.
In typical nomination races the characters and the outsiders flame out.
Prediction markets 鈥 and, significantly, the analysts who consider them 鈥 rely on the typical, long-term, and usually pretty stable predictors of success: endorsements from top party officials; polls in the early primary and caucus states, and of course money.
In typical nomination races the characters and the outsiders flame out.听They can鈥檛 build coalitions broad enough to get the nomination.听They make bad mistakes.听Their candidacy disintegrates once the media begins to scrutinize them more closely.听They flame out in a blaze of incompetence.
Most of all, outliers, competent or not, fail to get their party鈥檚 nomination because the influential politicians and money people support a candidate who can win the election.听Ultimately numbers, you should excuse the expression, trump passion.
In the case of Republicans, the candidate needs to be conservative, but just conservative enough for government work.
As Jon Sides鈥檚 and Lyn Vavreck鈥檚 book, 听shows, the last Republican race for the nomination was a textbook case of this business as usual pattern. Romney was the frontrunner from day one.听All of the other Republican candidates turned out to be just a distraction.
Maybe this race is different and Trump stands a chance.听Things are different from 2012 in several ways.听First of all, Trump is different from the run of the mill insurgent candidate.听Second, Republican politicians have for the most part held back their endorsements so far. Thanks to super-PACS, many more candidates than usual have been able to get enough money to sustain their campaigns.听 听
It is interesting to see how many astute analysts are hedging their bets by acknowledging the power of the stable forces while at the same time saying, sure those patterns are pretty stable, but just maybe this time will be different.
But not totally different. That鈥檚 where the longer-term perspective comes in.
No History as a Political Negotiator
Trump may do well in the primaries, but it is hard to imagine that he will do well enough to call the Republican Party鈥檚 shots.听And if he cannot call the shots, he will need to face political business as usual.
Specifically, he will need significant party bigwig support to get the nomination. To get the party influentials behind them, there will have to be some heavy, intense negotiations.
Right now there is no indication that Trump has the wherewithal or that the Republican bigwigs and big donors are inclined to do this.
Recently the Club For Growth, an organization that has great influence over the Republican Party, began a well-financed campaign to bring Trump down.
As the political scientist Daniel Schlozman points out in his interesting new book, these sorts of negotiations between a political party and outsiders generally take years of cultivation and exchange. Trump has no such history.
Trump needs key people to act as liaison between the Republican Party and his campaign.听Some of these people need to be sympathetic party regulars.听Others need to be Trump operatives who have good links to the party and well-honed negotiation skills.
Trump lacks all these in a big way. Overall, his political organization is very limited. According to a longtime Republican strategist, Trump has no effective central headquarters.
鈥淗e does not have the kind of infrastructure we ordinarily do in presidential campaigns. The whole campaign is based on him.鈥
What鈥檚 more, what contact there has been between Trump and party big shots has been limited and nasty.听 Recently the Club For Growth, an organization that has great influence over the Republican Party, began a well-financed campaign to bring Trump down.
Does this Club for Growth statement sound听 like promising fodder for negotiations: 鈥淒onald Trump is the worst candidate on economic issues.听 It鈥檚 astonishing that he鈥檚 even running as a Republican.鈥
The Field Is Shrinking
Trump fancies himself a master negotiator, but there is no sign that he is interested in negotiating with the Republican Party.听In fact, even if he is interested, he does not bring much to the table.
One way a group gets the support of a political party is to show that the group鈥檚 views and the party’s views are similar 鈥 call this ideology
Another way is to show that it is advantageous for the party to adopt the group鈥檚 views 鈥 call this winnability.
Labor unions successfully used ideology and winnability with the Democratic Party and social conservatives were equally successful with the Republicans.听In both cases, it took many years.
It鈥檚 hard to put a label on Trump鈥檚 core political beliefs.
Maybe as the campaign continues, Trump will do so well that the winnability argument will get him what he needs from the party.听But that is exactly what conservatives are trying to prevent.
Ideology? It鈥檚 hard to put a label on Trump鈥檚 core political beliefs.听Some suggest 鈥 generously, because it implies coherence 鈥 that he is some kind of right-wing populist.听Even if that is the case, right now that populism at most is at the fringes of the Republican Party鈥檚 conservative establishment.
The tea party quickly became an established part of the Republican Party because there was already a network of sympathetic Republican elected officials.
Trump has no such network.
Things are indeed different this time.听 After all, campaign finance laws have weakened the influence of political parties while strengthening the power of candidate-oriented super-PACS.听And prediction markets or not, no other candidate is close to emerging as an overall favorite for the Republican nomination. Trump continues to dominate press coverage.
And for better or worse, The Donald is a unique character.听Compared to Trump, Herman Cain and Michelle Bachman were introverted neophytes.
At the same time, some of the usual patterns that work against Trump are beginning to emerge.听The field is getting smaller and, as Scott Walker鈥檚 withdrawal speech and the Club for Growth鈥檚 campaign indicated, the attempt to coalesce around a true conservative has begun.
And of course there is this typical history of operatic presidential candidates: the same personal characteristics that got them initial attention went on to destroy them.听Remember how Herman Cain was going to be a straight shooting non-politician who would show those mealymouths how a guy who had actually met a payroll could run a country?
Maybe this time will be different, but then, people say that about almost every presidential campaign.
