Getting Into Hot Water in the South China Sea
America is getting closer to the edge of conflict as a dispute between China and other Asia-Pacific nations escalates.
As has been increasingly evident for the past couple of years, the “South China Sea” confrontation between China and its neighbors to the south (essentially the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in general, the Philippines and Viet Nam in particular) has the potential of constituting a casus belli, if caution is not exercised all around. But for the moment “caution” seems in even shorter supply than before.
Of note is the contention by the People’s Republic of China that they rightfully own all the islands in the South China Sea, even though many of those islands are a great deal closer to the coasts of the other countries around that body of water and frequently within the internationally recognized 360 kilometers “economic zone” of various ASEAN nations and a lot further from China than 360 km.
The United States, as part of its “pivot to Asia,” is getting more and more deeply involved in the issue. In addition, the U.S. has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. Both of these facts put America closer to the edge of conflict.
Secretary of Defense Ash Carter is greeted by Adm. Samuel Locklear III, as Carter and his wife, Stephanie, arrive in Honolulu last week. Carter was beginning a 10-day swing through the Asia-Pacific region.
DoD photo by Glenn Fawcett/Joint Combat Camera Center
New developments have put the “edge” only about 12 miles away. Just this past week, statements by Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, first at Pearl Harbor last Wednesday, and now in a speech to diplomats attending a Singapore security conference, to the effect that China is not sovereign over the islands in the Paracel group which it currently occupies and the U.S. will exercise full rights of international navigation, a signal that America is turning up the heat.
China, on the one hand, which has been building military-capable installations on a number of the Paracel Islands (the southern-most group in the sea and furthest away from the coast of China) claims it “owns” the islands in question and that there is a 12-mile zone of “sovereign waters” surrounding each island it has occupied. The United States, on the other hand, claims that the whole of the area constitutes “international waters,” and insists on the traditional right of free navigation.
If the U.S. Navy surveillance flights over the Chinese-occupied islands begin to cross over the 12-mile limit (they have not done so to date), there is no guarantee that the PRC military will not try to use force to exclude those aircraft.
It’s really starting to look like a game of “international chicken” and if shooting and/or mid-air collisions take place, this could end up very nastily.
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