Civil Beat Poll: Takai-Djou Race Too Close To Call
The candidates for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District are locked in a tie, while incumbents Schatz and Gabbard are expected to cruise to big victory in their races.
Democrat Mark Takai and Republican Charles Djou are headed for a photo finish in the race for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District.
The candidates are tied at 45 percent each, with 9 percent of the electorate still undecided — even with election day just one week away.
Matt Fitch, executive director ofÌý, which conductedÌýThe Civil Beat Poll, said recent elections give anÌýindication of where this contest might beÌýheaded.
“We’re seeing similar trends from how DjouÌýhas fared in previous electionsÌýand how TakaiÌýfared in the primary,” he said. “Takai got strongerÌýcloser to Election Day. DjouÌýis a very formidable Republican candidate in a very tough district, but he’s got a ceiling. He was able to win it once in a three-way race, but the other times he came up a littleÌýshort.”
Charles Djou and Mark Takai shake hands at end of a candidates forum, Sept. 23.
PF Bentley/Civil Beat
Third Time a Charm?
The three-way race was when Djou defeated Democrats Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa in aÌýMay 2010 special election to fill out the remainderÌýof the term of Neil Abercrombie, who resigned to run for governor. There were 11 other candidates on the ballot in the winner-take-all bout, but each collected less than o.5 percent of the vote.
Case elected not to run against Hanabusa in the Democratic primary that year, and Hanabusa went on to defeat Djou by 6 percentage points in the general election.ÌýIn a rematch with Djou two years later,ÌýHanabusa won by 9 percentage points.
Hanabusa’s unsuccessful challenge against U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz in the Democratic primary opened up the CD1 race. Takai came from behind in the polls to defeat six other candidates andÌýbecome the nominee while Djou faces onlyÌýnominal competition in his third time around for the CD1 ring (or fourth, if you include the special election).
While Takai, a state representative, is a Democrat in a state controlled by Democrats, Djou, a former state representative and Honolulu City Council member, has greater name recognition. But will that be enough for him to win?
A Tightening Race
“We’ve always wonderedÌýif Djou did well in a tough DemocraticÌýdistrict becauseÌýhe was an unusuallyÌýgood Republican candidateÌýor if Hanabusa was not that strong of a Democratic candidate,” he said. “Her very strongÌýeffort in the U.S. SenateÌýprimary — a very good effort — shows just how strong of a candidate she really is, and that flatters the losing effortsÌýof Djou even more.”
Hanabusa trailed Schatz in campaign money and most public opinion polls yet managed to pull within 1,782 votes in the special election in PunaÌýon the Big Island, which was heldÌýa week after the Aug. 9 primary due to Tropical Storm Iselle.
What Djou has to worry about, however — and what might give Takai hope — is that Takai trailed Djou by 4 percentage points in late September. Now they’re in a dead heat.
This time around, Civil Beat surveyed 604ÌýlikelyÌývoters statewide Oct. 16-19. TheÌýpoll, which sampledÌý70Ìýpercent landlines versus 30Ìýpercent cellphones, has a margin of error of 4 percent.
Landslide Wins for Schatz, Gabbard?
Another indication of how close the Djou-Takai slugfestÌýappears to be is that there are not a lot of differences in terms of the latest poll’s demographics. Both candidates draw about the same voter support in terms of gender, age and income levels.
Both men are military veterans, and they attract similar levels of veteran support. Takai does better among union households, but not dramatically, even though labor traditionallyÌýaligns with Democrats.
The only area where there are clear differences in support is ethnic. Takai does very well among Japanese-Americans (Takai is Japanese-American) while Djou does very well among Filipinos, Hawaiians and Chinese (Djou is Thai-Chinese). Takai has the edge among white voters.
In Hawaii’s other congressional races this year, Schatz leads Republican Cam Cavasso 55 percent to 29Ìýpercent with 16 percent undecided. In the 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, a Democrat, is ahead of Republican Kawika Crowley 69 percent to 19 percent with 12 percent undecided.
Coming Wednesday:ÌýPoll results forÌýconstitutional amendment ballot question No. 4 regarding the use of public money for private preschools.
