Civil Beat Poll: Ige Up by 6 Over Aiona
The Democratic nominee for Hawaii governor leads Republican Duke Aiona 40 percent to 34 percent. Hawaii Independent Party candidate Mufi Hannemann is at 11 percent.
Democrat David Ige appears headed to victory in the race for Hawaii governor.
With just over one week until the Nov. 4 election, the state senator leads Republican Duke Aiona, a former lieutenant governor, 40 percent to 34 percent, according to a new Civil Beat Poll.
The latest numbers suggest that the contest continues to be a two-person race.ÌýEarly voting has already begun.
David Ige during an editorial board meeting at the Civil Beat offices on Oct. 1. PF Bentley/Civil Beat
Clear Trend Line
Only 11Ìýpercent of voters favor former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann, the Hawaii Independent Party candidate. Libertarian Jeff Davis is atÌý6 percent while 8 percent of voters are undecided.
“I think it’s a pretty clear trend,” said Matt Fitch, executive director ofÌý, which conductedÌýThe Civil Beat Poll.Ìý“Slowly but steadily,ÌýIgeÌýcoming out of the primaryÌýhas increasedÌýhis margin and, in my opinion, it’s very hard to imagine him losing.”
Civil Beat surveyed 1,221ÌýlikelyÌývoters statewide Oct. 16-19. TheÌýpoll, which sampledÌý70Ìýpercent landlines versus 30Ìýpercent cellphones, has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
Abercrombie Voters BackÌýIge
Fitch said he expected Ige to continue to widen his vote marginÌýover Aiona as the Nov. 4 election approaches.
“TheÌýDemocraticÌýParty in Hawaii has traditionally had a stronger ground game than Republicans in terms of get-out-the-vote efforts,” he said. “If they can produce the sort of turnout effort of two years ago in the presidentialÌýelection, I can easily see Ige winning by 10 points or more.”
One indicator of Ige’s appeal to his party is that a larger percentage of voters who voted for Gov. Neil Abercrombie — 62 percent — in the Aug. 9 primary, which Ige won in a landslide, say they are going to back Ige in the general.
Duke Aiona with Civil Beat’s editorial board, Sept. 29.
Nathan Eagle/Civil Beat
Age, Income, Gender
“ItÌýsays that Abercrombie,Ìýwhen he lost,Ìýhe held on to his base and that the moreÌýliberalÌýDemocrats now feelÌýcomfortable transferring over to Ige,” said Fitch. “Ige did well on his ownÌýaccord but he also benefittedÌýfrom crossoverÌývotersÌýthat wanted to oust Abercrombie in the primary.”
Only 53 percent of those who backed Ige in the earlier race will vote for him again.
Ige does better among both men and women, people over 50 years of age, military and especially union households, and all income groups.
The Ethnic Breakdown
Compared with Aiona, Ige also pulls more votes onÌýthe neighbor islands but attractsÌýroughly an equal amount of supportÌýon Oahu.
Among ethnic groups, Ige is favoredÌýbyÌýJapanese-Americans and Caucasians. Aiona receives more support than Ige fromÌýFilipinos, Hawaiians and Chinese.
Ige and running mate Shan Tsutsui, the current lieutenant governor, are Japanese-American. Aiona and running mate Elwin Ahu, a New Hope pastor, are Hawaiian-Chinese.
Mufi Hannemann at a Civil Beat editorial board Oct. 6.
PF Bentley/Civil Beat
Comparing the Polls
In September, theÌýCivil Beat Poll for the governor’s raceÌýshowed Ige at 43 percent, Aiona at 39 percent, Hannemann at 8 percent and Davis at 2 percent. Eight percent were undecided.
While totals differ, Ìýconducted in September and October also reflect similar results, according to .
Coming Tuesday:ÌýPoll results for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives.
