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The latest polls on the race for Hawaii governor, the U.S. Congress and ballot question No. 4 on funding private preschool are out.

Some people are very pleased with the results, some are quite disappointed and dissing them, and still others are pretending to ignore them.

Next Tuesday we’ll find out whether the polls were right, of course. But I’ve been thinking: Why do we even bother to poll our elections?

For the media, of course, it’s a matter of news. But it’s a manufactured kind of news, part of horse-race journalism that doesn’t much probe the candidates, their positions on the issues, and the things they say and do.

If we didn’t report who is ahead of whom, the public would not know. The politicians and their campaigns would know, however — at least, the ones that can afford their own internal polling. If the results are favorable, they’ll leak it to somebody.

I’m realistic: Public opinion polls aren’t going to go away. But I’ve got to vent.

No One Votes for a Loser

Every time Civil Beat runs a poll, we give the campaigns an embargoed heads up. Unlike other local media, though, we don’t bother to get a comment from the campaign — e.g., “The only poll that matters is on election day.”

Well, duh.

But I do get feedback, and I understand the inadvertent consequences that come from publishing polls.

For example, if a candidate polls in first place and the lead is a wide one, there is a pressure to meet expectations. If the lead is narrow, however, the candidate is constantly looking over his or her shoulder.

On the other hand, leading in the polls can also turn into a wish-fulfilling prophecy. People don’t like to vote for losers. That’s why frontrunners quickly share the poll results with supporters and other media and those who are trailing spin things the best they can.

Here’s what Democrat David Ige and Republican Duke Aiona had to tweet on the day the Honolulu Star-Advertiser published its latest poll results:

Breaking News: Ige leads Gov race – Hawaii News – Honolulu Star-Advertiser

— David Ige (@DavidIge2014)

12 more days to the finish line! Keep calm and vote for Duke & Elwin! … — Duke Aiona (@DukeAiona2014)

If you come in second in a field of at least three and you are not far behind, in many ways you are in better shape than the frontrunner — like Avis rent-a-car, “We are only No. 2 so we try harder.” Voters and donors start giving you a second look.

But if you finish in the back of the pack, it’s awful.

In a three-way race with the top two candidates in close contention — e.g., Ige and Aiona — it makes it very difficult to persuade a voter to go for the third-ranked candidate — in this case, Mufi Hannemann.

Hannemann’s twitter feed on the day of the Star-Advertiser poll made no mention of it and focused on his activity on the campaign trail. Example:

It was great doing a Big Island Blitz from Kohala thru Waimea to Hilo – mahalo gang!

— Mufi Hannemann (@MufiHannemann)

When Civil Beat published a poll in September showing Hannemann way behind Ige and Aiona, a Hannemann acolyte gave me an earful. She told me that we polled too many of this ethnic group and not enough of that one, too many people who lean this way and not enough who lean that way, and so our results are just not credible.

Who knows, we may end up calling the governor’s race wrong. But thus far, every local and national poll has shown a similar lineup: Ige in first, Aiona in second, Hannemann in third and Jeff Davis (if he is even included in the poll) coming in last.

No One Gives Money to a Loser

I have also received calls from irate campaigns angry that our polls will discourage donors from giving them money. Why would people with deep pockets, after all, throw cash at a candidate who only leads within the margin of error?

I’ve seen candidates use our poll results in last-minute television commercials to drum up last-minute votes, too. In one case, a candidate who paid for spots that showed a Civil Beat poll suggesting the candidate was in a close race ended up losing pretty badly.

I felt terrible for the candidate but I felt even worse for us, because we called the race wrong. I’m still catching flak for that poll.

And, I’ve seen campaigns issue critical statements after our polls are published, taking issue with our polling methodology and promising that the campaign’s internal polls show the race, in fact, to be competitive. But they never make those polls public and they don’t reveal the methodology.

One thing I don’t hear much is people from campaigns asking me who I really think will win.

“Shhh!” someone will say if I dare to broach the subject. “It’s bachi!”

“Bachi” is a Japanese word that translates as “bad karma,” meaning that whatever you say or do may come back to haunt you.

Speaking of which, a letter writer to the Star-Advertiser on Tuesday complained about the newspaper publishing “irresponsible” polls. Ann Ruby of downtown Honolulu said the paper should just stick to “reporting the real news instead of attempting to sway the voters in some manner likely to make some lose interest in going to the polls.”

Ruby went on to say that she now planned to vote against all the candidates the Star-Advertiser reported were ahead.

“Maybe your premature headlines will backfire,” she concluded.

Bachi!