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The endorsement of candidates in Hawaii federal elections by our only major circulation legacy newspaper, in and of itself, is usually said to be worth a possible 2% to 3% at the ballot box, if that.

The Star-Advertiser’s endorsement of Brian Schatz in the upcoming Democratic primary is nonetheless instructive on a couple of fronts.

First of all, the editorial board of the paper was probably “figuring the odds” of maintaining its influence in Hawaii politics and decided to “go with a winner.” Indeed, It’s rather unlikely, in our opinion, that basic political policy had much to do with the decision, especially given the fact that the two leading candidates are quite close on most issues.

So the Star-Advertiser has apparently come to the conclusion that Schatz is ahead in what is a tight race and that if they are credited with giving him the boost to put him over the top in the primary against Hanabusa (and the GOP has practically no chance of a victory in the general this year), he will remember them for the long years he is likely to sit in the U.S. Senate if elected outright this time around.

Of course, since polling in Hawaii is notoriously unreliable, they could always get a nasty surprise if some sectors of the traditional Hawaii Democratic base turn out in droves to support Hanabusa, but at this point what they have done looks like a reasonable bet.

The second reason this endorsement is interesting is for what it doesn’t say or only says tangentially (“…undoubtedly set teeth on edge among the Democratic Party old guard”): that, in fact, Hanabusa’s candidacy is basically about maintaining the power of the Inouye faction in the Hawaii Democratic Party.

Strictly speaking, Schatz’s selection by Gov. Neil Abercrombie followed the letter of the law. The central committee of the deceased incumbent’s political party met and submitted a list of three candidates for gubernatorial appointment.

That list was rank-ordered as follows: 1) Brian Schatz, 2) Coleen Hanabusa, 3) Esther Kia’aina. Following the wishes of the Democratic Central Committee, the governor appointed their top pick, Brian Schatz.

Of course, we all know that Rep. Hanabusa was close to the late Senator Dan Inouye and that he favored her to follow in his footsteps. Neil Abercrombie has said, however, that Dan had told him in person some time before he passed away “the final choice, of course, will be up to you.”

So the governor made the final choice and it was not what the late Senator or his most ardent long-time supporters would have wished. They were mad as hell. It was a significant break with what the newspaper called the “Old Guard” and the long-running (but rarely openly expressed) tendency towards identity politics in The Islands.

And Neil Abercrombie may end up paying a heavy political price this year for his independence. However, the current run of the Old Guard has gone on for the last 60 years and it is not so surprising that a trend towards a more modern alignment in a changing Hawaii population has taken hold.

Even if Rep. Hanabusa does surprise the editorial board of the Star-Advertiser and comes out on top on August 9, it will probably be a last gasp. In the end, demographics will win out.