Civil Beat Poll: Donna Mercado Kim Still Frontrunner in CD1 Race
With Mark Takai not far behind and four other Democrats stuck in single digits, the congressional race seems a two-person contest.
Donna Mercado Kim continues to lead the crowded contest for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District, according to a Civil Beat Poll.
But Mark Takai remains in the hunt, trailing Kim 30 percent to 24 percent among voters who said they intend to vote Democrat in the primary.
Four other candidates in the Democratic primary polled in single digits. The number of undecided voters is 23 percent.
PF Bentley/Civil Beat
“It sure looks like a two-candidate race,” said Brendan Hood, a polling analyst ÌýwithÌý, which conductedÌýThe Civil Beat Poll.Ìý
Civil Beat surveyed 416 registered voters who live in the 1st District, which covers the urban areasÌýof the City & County of Honolulu. Of those, 259 said they planned to vote Democrat in the Aug. 9 primary. The margin of error was 6.1 percent.
Hood cautioned thatÌýthe poll’s sample size is “relatively smaller”Ìýthan ones for statewide races, and the margin of error is larger.
“ButÌýeven withÌýthat, it clearlyÌýlooks likeÌýa race between state Sen.ÌýKim and state Rep.ÌýTakai,” he said.
This is the second time Civil Beat has surveyed the 1st Congressional race. In February, Kim lead Takai 25 percent to 20 percent. Thirty-six percent were undecided.
The other four Democrats we polled May 18-19 wereÌýstate Sen. Will Espero and Honolulu City Councilmen Ikaika Anderson, Stanley Chang and Joey Manahan.
We did not include community activist Kathryn Xian in either poll, nor two other Democrats who have pulled papers for the CD1 race but not yet filed. Neither isÌýwell known.
State Rep. Mark Takai at the Democratic Party of Hawaii convention, May 25, 2014.
Kim and Takai seem to benefit from name recognition due to their experience in politics.
Kim, the state Senate president, has held elective office longer than all her competitors — 32 years. Takai has been a state House representativeÌýsince 1994.
Both candidates have also fared well at raising campaign funds, as has Chang. They are the only three candidates in the race thus far to have aired television advertisements.
Kim and Takai did not differ dramatically among the demographic groups representing gender, labor affiliation and ideological preference. But 30 percent of female voters have not made up their mind on the CD1 race, as compared with just 16 percent of males.
AÌýfew other things stand out.
Kim, whose ancestry includes Korean, Filipino and Chinese, drew the most support from whites, Filipinos, Hawaiians and Chinese. Takai, a Japanese American, did best among Japanese voters. Large percentages of Filipinos and Japanese say they are still unsure who they’ll vote for.
Takai did best among voters earning $100,000 or more in income, while Kim did best with those earning less than that amount. Kim, 61, did best with voters over 50 years of age, Takai, 46, with those under.
Both candidates draw roughly equal numbers from liberal-progressives, moderates and conservatives.
Takai is the only military veteran in the Democratic field, yet Kim draws more support from that group, suggesting that voters may not be fully aware of Takai’s service record.
Conservative views and a military background Ìýcould be important in the primary and general election for the Democratic nominee, sinceÌýformer U.S. Rep. Charles Djou, a Republican and veteran, is expected to be the GOP’s preferred candidate.
Our latest survey ofÌýthe U.S. Senate Democratic primary raceÌýran Monday. Next week we will publish polls onÌýthe races for Hawaii governor and lieutenant governor.
