The Real Final Frontier
Editor’s Note: This is the first of a three-part series by longtime coastal policy expert Douglas Tom.
Star Trek entertains with its imaginative illustration of science and theory. More than a half century ago, for example, Norbert Wiener, who coined the term cybernetics, reasoned that matter is energy and energy is transportable, so matter should also be transportable; hence, Star Trek鈥檚 transporter to 鈥渂eam鈥 the spaceship鈥檚 crew to various sites and back.
Mere fantasy or impractical theory? Surprisingly, some scientists actually believe teleportation will be demonstrated within the next century. And while, for entertainment, Star Trek will likely continue to explore space 鈥 its final frontier 鈥渨here no one has gone before鈥 鈥 for survival, we should explore more comprehensively and care for our ocean frontier.
Taking up more than 70 percent of the Earth鈥檚 surface, the ocean is the frontier we understand least but will have to depend on a lot more.
The global population is about 7.2 billion. By 2050, it is expected to be more than 9.4 billion, which is like adding the 1950 world population onto today鈥檚 crowd.
Where will the additional people live? How will they be fed? The world鈥檚 food production system is already stressed and incapable of satisfying future demand. The terrestrial sector is aggravated even further by efforts to convert agricultural lands for urban use to oblige the growing demand for homes and businesses.
So while it already contributes a substantial amount of food for human consumption, the ocean will have to supply much more if the world鈥檚 people are to be fed, and common sense tells us that if we want to get the most out of the ocean, we will have to take care of it.
If the ocean is to provide the additional food we require, we need to heal and nurture it, and because that will take time, it should be a priority.
The doctoring is critical and immediate because the stakes are high. At a minimum, we need to know the level at which the ocean鈥檚 health must be sustained to produce the food sources we need so that we have a reliable concept to influence and nurture the right kind of human behavior.
If you haven鈥檛 noticed, food costs are increasing and will continue to do so. And it should be no surprise that they are more obvious in insular areas because of importation. If the law of supply and demand is instructive, we can expect increasingly higher prices when demand exceeds supply.
To suppress and reverse the trend, the supply side of the equation must be strengthened, which means the ocean must maintain a healthy state so that the supply of food we sustainably harvest from it can be plentiful enough to satisfy the mounting demands of a growing population.
If we fail, food prices will remain high and we will likely witness global competition and perhaps aggression over control of food resources.
A vision of a healthy and productive ocean is the vital conceptual guide for ongoing human activities affecting the ocean because for many of us the ocean is the real final frontier that will define our future.
About the author: Douglas Tom was the first elected chair of the Ocean Policy Committee of the Coastal States Organization, an organization of coastal state governors.
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