Civil Beat Poll — Oahu Voters Don’t Like Mufi But Are OK With Caldwell
Survey shows divided opinion over whether former Honolulu mayor should run for office again.
Mufi Hannemann is said to be interested in a return to public service, and his attention lately has been on a run for governor as an independent candidate.
He has also considered running for Congress again or seeking his former Honolulu City Council seat.
But a new Civil Beat Poll shows nearly 60 percent of Oahu voters have a negative impression of the former Honolulu mayor. Just 32 percent view him in a positive light.
Asked whether they would vote for Hannemann were he to run for political office this year, 28 percent said “very unlikely” and 20 percent said “somewhat unlikely.”
Mufi Hannemann thanks supporters on the Big Island, 2012.
The poll numbers are not all bad for Hannemann, who lost a race for governor in 2010 as a Democrat and a race for Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District seat in 2012, also as a Democrat. On the plus side, 20 percent of voters surveyed said they were “very likely” to vote for him in 2014 and 23 percent “somewhat likely.”
As has often been said of Hannemann, he can usually count on 30 percent of the vote or so in most elections. In theory, the thinking goes, he has a chance to win Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District seat which has already attracted seven candidates. Or, in a three-way general election for governor, an independent Hannemann might prevail over a Democrat and a Republican.
That said, The Civil Beat Poll on Hannemann suggests that he is unpopular among most groups.
We surveyed 685 registered Oahu voters Feb. 12-15 on landlines and cell phones. The poll’s margin of error is 3.1 percent.
Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell.
Hannemann did not draw a majority of support from any group we polled — males, females, people under 50 and over, people living in CD1 and CD2, military and union households, all educational groups, all income groups, all ethnic groups, Democrats, Republicans and independents; and liberals, moderates and conservatives.
It’s not that voters don’t know him; very few voters said they were unsure about how they felt about Hannemann.
By contrast, the current Honolulu mayor, Kirk Caldwell, fares pretty well among Oahu voters. Fifty-two percent view him favorably, and 35 percent view him unfavorably.
Among ethnic groups, Caldwell, who is Caucasian, does best with Japanese and Hawaiians, least well with Hispanics. And he receives higher marks in CD1 (essentially, greater Honolulu) than in CD2 (from essentially, the Windward side and North Shore).
The current mayor also scores well with Democrats, liberals, progressives and moderates. Union and military households also like him, as do people ranging across income levels.
Caldwell and Hannemann have a history together.
Caldwell is Hannemann’s former managing director who briefly served as mayor in 2010 when Hannemann resigned to run for governor. Caldwell lost the special election that fall to Peter Carlisle to complete the remaining two years on Hannemann’s term.
Caldwell returned to the mayorship in 2012 after defeating former Honolulu Gov. Ben Cayetano in the general election. Carlisle finished third in the primary, in which Cayetano did not break 50 percent of the vote that would have allowed him to become mayor, forcing the Caldwell-Cayetano matchup.
Honolulu politics is a small pool. Carlisle has talked of trying to get his old job back, and some have speculated that Hannemann might, too. But, based on Civil Beat’s poll, folks on Oahu like the man already on the job.
Contact Chad Blair via email at cblair@civilbeat.com or follow him on Twitter at @chadblairCB.
