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UPDATED 7:30 a.m.

Just how many Democrats will be elected to serve in the 2013 Hawaii Legislature?

So many that the state might as well paint the building as blue as President Barack Obama’s tie in last week’s debate.

Unlike Obama, whose poor performance has given Mitt Romney a real chance to win the presidency back for Republicans, Hawaii Democrats have virtually no chance of losing control of either the state Senate or the House of Representatives.

The party balance of power in the 2012 Legislature was 24-1 in the Senate and 43-8 in the House. Two years before that, before the 2010 election, it was the Senate 23-2 and the House 45-6.

With the retirement of Barbara Marumoto and with Kymberly Pine leaving the House to run for the Honolulu City Council, GOP numbers have already dropped to six this year.

In contrast, Democrats are on track to begin the 2013 session with dominant majorities.

As a result of the Aug. 11 primary, nine Democratic senators have already been re-elected to office because they face no general election opponent: Gil Kahele, Shan Tsutsui, Kalani English, Suzanne Chun Oakland, Donna Mercado Kim, Glenn Wakai, Clarence Nishihara, Will Espero and Jill Tokuda.

In the House, 15 Democratic representatives were re-elected: Mark Nakashima, Clift Tsuji, Faye Hanohano, Cindy Evans, Joe Souki, Gil Keith-Agaran, Derek Kawakami, Jimmy Tokioka, Scott Nishimoto, Sylvia Luke, Karl Rhoads, Roy Takumi, Henry Aquino, Jessica Wooley and Ken Ito.

With the election of Romy Cachola and Gregg Takayama, who were also elected outright in the primary, the number of House Democrats now stands at 17.

Just two Republicans were automatically sent back to office: Gene Ward and Cynthia Thielen.

That leaves 32 of the total 51 House races and 16 of the total 25 Senate races to be decided Nov. 6. So, mathematically, it is possible for the local GOP to make gains.

But, given the one-party dominance of Hawaii politics — and the fact that Obama is currently heavily favored in Hawaii over Romney, Mazie Hirono over Linda Lingle, Colleen Hanabusa over Charles Djou and Tulsi Gabbard over Kawika Crowley, according to Civil Beat polls — there won’t be any coattails to ride.

Civil Beat handicaps the legislative races.

Likely Winners

Based on election history, name recognition and the number of votes they received in the Aug. 11 primary — with the important caveat that primary results do not necessarily dictate general election outcomes, since primary voters can only vote for candidates of one party — these Senate Democrats seem good bets to return to office: Josh Green, Roz Baker, Ron Kouchi, Les Ihara, Brian Taniguchi, Brickwood Galuteria, David Ige, Michelle Kidani, Mike Gabbard, Maile Shimabukuro and Donovan Dela Cruz.

The re-election of these 11 Democrats, most of them veteran lawmakers, would raise the Senate majority to 20. Still, the defeat of any of the 11 — most are well-known public figures — would be big news and a boost to the GOP.

In the House, these Democrats appear assured re-election: Kyle Yamashita, Mele Carroll, Dee Morikawa, Isaac Choy, Della Au Belatti, John Mizuno, Linda Ichiyama, Mark Takai, Ryan Yamane, Ty Cullen, Karen Awana, Sharon Har, Jo Jordan, Marcus Oshiro and Chris Lee.

With the addition of these 15 House Democrats to the 17 already elected, that brings the majority’s numbers to 32.

As in the Senate, however, a Democratic loss would make headlines and help the minority party. The Hawaii Republican Party believes some Dems are vulnerable, including Mizuno, who is the subject of a GOP Campaign Spending Commission complaint.

Senate Races to Watch

With the likely winners removed from the equation, that leaves just five Senate seats that could be close.

Of those seats, it seems improbable that Democrat Clayton Hee will lose to Republican Colleen Meyer. This race is listed primarily because Meyer is a former legislator.

Driving the Windward Oahu District 23 Saturday, I saw several Meyer campaign signs but many more Hee signs, anecdotal evidence that the district remains Hee country. More telling: Hee has a stunning $400,000 in cash on hand according with the Campaign Spending Commission, while Meyer .

The outcome of the other four seats is less certain.

The District 2 seat on the Big Island was created this year due to reapportionment. Democrat Russell Ruderman surprised many by defeating longtime House Rep. Bob Herkes in the primary.

Ruderman won 3,100 votes, far more than his Republican opponent Daryl Smith, who earned just over 800 votes in his uncontested primary. But more than 5,100 votes were also cast for Democrats in the primary other than Ruderman, leaving them up for grabs in a general election that does not limit voters to just one party’s ballot.

Another Big Island Senate seat, the one for District 4, features Democrat Malama Solomon and Green Party candidate Kelly Greenwell — but no Republican.

Greenwell, a former County Council member who has had well-publicized run-ins with the law, received a scant 21 votes in his uncontested primary while Solomon received 4,068. But 3,999 also voted for Solomon’s primary opponent, former legislator and Big Isle mayor Lorraine Inouye, who considered contesting the vote. Still, the race seems Solomon’s to lose.

Republican Sam Slom has represented East Honolulu for years, and his re-election would seem a pretty good bet. But Democrat Kurt Lajala, a pilot with a military background, pulled in 6,725 votes in the District 9 primary as compared with Slom’s 3,888.

That said, a whopping 7,988 voters who pulled a Democratic ballot left it blank rather than vote for Lajala. In 2010, Slom was re-elected with more than 12,000 votes, suggesting that he is still a very popular lawmaker.

The biggest Senate race of all is the matchup between Democrat Laura Thielen and former state senator Fred Hemmings for the District 25 seat on Oahu. Thielen picked up more than twice as many votes as Hemmings in the primary, but roughly that same amount voted for Thielen’s opponents, which included Sen. Pohai Ryan.

Question: Could Republicans be shut out of the 2013 Senate?

House Races to Watch

With the likely winners removed from the equation, there are 17 House seats that could be close.

Let’s start with the probable winners.

Democrat Calvin Say has won election after election, and he took so many votes in the District 20 primary that it’s difficult to imagine how Republican Julia Allen, who has lost to Say before, and Green Party candidate Keiko Bonk can prevail. Bonk is trying, though, sign-waving like crazy and seeking to mobilize the pro-environment vote that knocked Pono Chong out of the primary.

As well, it seems probable that Democrats Denny Coffman, Angus McKelvey, Tom Brower and Scott Saiki will prevail over their respective Republican opponents, Dave Bateman, Chayne Martin, Marcus Hester and Tiffany Au. The caveat is that several of these GOP candidates appear to be running spirited campaigns and Saiki’s district was reapportioned.

Similarly, Mark Hashem — an incumbent who was reapportioned into a new district — earned more primary votes than Jeremy Low in Oahu’s District 18, but Low is a feisty campaigner and Hashem still new to office. In the District 36 seat, veteran Democrat Marylin Lee — who survived a razor-thin vote just two years ago — faces Beth Fukumoto, a GOP party leader and wife of party chair David Chang.

Six House seats are open, meaning there is no incumbent represented.

Of those, the District 3 seat on the Big Island leans toward Democrat Richard Onishi, who earned many more votes than Republican Marlene Hapai and Libertarian Frederick Fogel. In Oahu’s District 19, former lawmaker Bert Kobayashi is favored over Republican Darrell Young.

Same goes for the District 45 matchup between Democrat Jake Bradshaw against Republican Lauren Cheape, and the District 47 contest between Democrat Ululani Bernie and Republican Richard Fale, although the GOP could prevail in either contest; Cheape is one of the “beauty queens” running this year (Tiffany Au is the other) and Fale upset incumbent Gil Riviere in the primary.

The outcome of the race for District 6 seat, however, which is on Big Island, is less clear: Democrat Nicole Lowen surpassed Kalei Akaka (granddaughter of U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka) by just 45 votes, and there were two other Democrats in the field as well. Republican Roy Ebert may be able to capitalize in the Kailua-Kona district that has tended to lean conservative.

The sixth House race with no incumbent features Bob McDermott, a former legislator, against newcomer Democrat Chris Manabat for the District 40 seat representing Ewa Beach and Iroquois Point. Manabat, son of Rep. Rida Cabanilla, has come under fire — from Democrats who say he registered late for the party and may not have resided long in the district, and from Republicans who charge nepotism because his mom hired him to work in her House office.

Cabanilla has her own challenges in District 41, where Republican Adam Reeder hopes to unseat her. It’s one of the House seats that was reapportioned.

But three Republican incumbents may be in trouble, too.

Democrat Takashi Ohno won nearly 4,000 votes in the primary race for District 27 while Rep. Corinne Ching took in less than 900. In another Oahu race, the one for District 31, Rep. Aaron Ling Johanson won 777 primary votes compared with over 1,000 for Democrat Lei Sharsh. Johanson, still new to the Capitol, ran unopposed but Sharsh defeated two other Democrats; still, Johanson handily defeated Sharsh in 2010.

Meanwhile, on Maui, District 11‘s Rep. George Fontaine earned 685 votes in the GOP primary to Democrat Kaniela Ing’s 1,108. Ing defeated three other candidates and is a serious contender to take the seat back for Democrats. No wonder, then, that the GOP has filed Campaign Spending Commission complaints against Ing this election as well.

Question: Will House Republicans lose seats?