Civil Beat Poll – Questionnaires and Toplines — June 2012
Civil Beat conducted two polls in June 2012 to take the temperature of key U.S. Senate and Congress primaries and the race for Honolulu mayor.
Below are the full questionnaires, issue results, demographics and methodologies.
Here are the stories Civil Beat published based on the polls, each of which has its own race-specific survey report with full results and cross-tabulations:
- Civil Beat Poll – Case, Hirono Tied In Hawaii U.S. Senate Race
- Civil Beat Poll – Cayetano’s Grip On Honolulu Mayor’s Race Is Slipping
- Civil Beat Poll – Stunning Turnaround In Hawaii’s CD2 Race
Questionnaires
Topline Results, Demographics and Cross-tabulations
Methodology
ABOUT THE FIRST POLL: Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 1,105 likely participants in the upcoming August election (i.e., registered voters whose voting histories indicate that they are likely to vote in one of the August state-wide Primaries and/or the Oahu Mayor’s race). Calls were made on the evenings of June 5-7, 2012, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).
All results were weighted for age, gender, county, and Congressional District (within Oahu County). Results for the four electoral contests polled — Honolulu mayor, U.S. Senate Democrats, U.S. Senate Republicans and 2nd Congressional District Democrats — were further weighted for likelihood of voting in each particular contest as determined by past voting history and self-report.
The sampling margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.9 percentage points. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within +/- 2.9 percent of the actual percentage in the full population of registered voters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result.
The sampling margin of error is larger for each of the four electoral contests. The appropriate margin of error is noted within each individual election report.
The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with , a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications.
ABOUT THE SECOND POLL: Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 685 likely participants in the Democratic Primary for Hawaii’s Second Congressional District seat to be held this August. Calls were made on the evenings of June 13-14, 2012, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).
All results were weighted for age, gender, county, and likelihood of voting as determined by past voting history and self-report.
The sampling margin of error is +/- 3.7 percent. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within +/- 3.7 percent of the actual percentage in the full population of likely voters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result.
The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with , a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications.
