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Former Gov. Ben Cayetano is riding strong anti-rail sentiment to a dominating lead in the Honolulu mayor’s race, according to The Civil Beat Poll.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters in Honolulu said that if the election were held today, they would support Cayetano, 15 points more than the total for his two opponents combined. Mayor Peter Carlisle has 21 percent support and former Acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell has 17 percent. Nine percent were unsure.

Honolulu’s $5.2 billion rail project will be “very important” for 70 percent of the voters in deciding whom to support for mayor, the poll found. Eighteen percent said it was “somewhat important.” Just 9 percent of the voters said it wasn’t important, with 4 percent unsure.

The automated telephone survey of 1,172 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.¹ It was conducted on Feb. 26 and 27, just after the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation announced its first CEO. Cayetano, one of the plaintiffs in the federal lawsuit trying to stop the rail project, jumped into the race formally on Jan. 19.

Cayetano made a point of stressing that he’s not a one-issue candidate, waiting 10 minutes in his kick-off speech before even mentioning rail. One of his top advisers told Civil Beat at the time that his issue is “money. It’s the proper allocation of money by the city government.”

That may be the case, but that’s not what’s catapulted him ahead of his opponents and has him in a position to get the 50 percent plus 1 that he needs to win the mayoral contest outright on Aug. 11. The poll shows that rail has done that.

The poll found that 84 percent of voters who oppose rail back Cayetano, while he gets the backing of 9 percent of voters who support the project.

Of the minority who support the project, 51 percent support Carlisle and 34 percent back Caldwell. Seven percent of rail supporters haven’t decided whom they support.

Cayetano told Civil Beat he did not look at any polls before deciding to enter the race.

“Polls don’t affect my decision,” he said by email. “At the outset of every one of my statewide elections I was far behind. In 1994, I was 30% behind front runner Pat Saiki, Frank Fasi was 2% behind me. In 1998, in July, four months before the Nov. election, I was 22% behind Linda Lingle. If I deferred to the polls, I would not have run. I make my decisions largely by intuition.

“I did not see or review any poll until the StarAdvertiser ran its poll a few months ago,” he wrote. “Two weeks ago, I saw the summary of a poll (not mine) which showed results similar to the StarAdvertiser poll. So far I have not commissioned any poll. If we can afford it, I may commission a poll a month or so prior to the primary election.”

When it comes to voters for whom rail is very important in making their decision, 65 percent back Cayetano, 19 percent Carlisle and 12 percent Caldwell. It’s a dead heat when it comes to voters for whom rail is somewhat important, with Carlisle and Caldwell each getting 27 percent and 29 percent opting for Cayetano. (Read the poll questionnaire.)

More voters for whom rail is not important back Caldwell, 34 percent, than Carlisle, 26 percent, and Cayetano, 25 percent.

Of Cayetano’s supporters, 85 percent said his position on rail is “very important” in their decision to support him. Ten percent said it was somewhat important. The other 5 percent said it was either not important or they weren’t sure.

Rail is very important for more Cayetano supporters than it is for supporters of Carlisle and Caldwell. Sixty-three percent of Carlisle’s supporters said it was very important, with 22 percent saying it was somewhat important. Forty-nine percent of Caldwell’s supporters said it was very important, with 29 percent saying it was somewhat important.

Ninety percent of Cayetano’s supporters oppose rail, while 82 percent of Carlisle’s are in favor of the project, and 70 percent of Caldwell’s feel the same way.

While voters who identify as Democrats are the most likely to back rail, they’re also most likely to back the former Democratic governor. Cayetano gets 48 percent of Democratic support, while Caldwell (a Democrat who served as Hawaii House majority leader) gets just 20 percent, slightly less than Carlisle (a former Republican) at 24 percent. The mayoral election is nonpartisan.

Cayetano gets 61 percent of Republicans, 58 percent of independents and 47 percent of those unsure of their party affiliation. The poll found that he dominates all groups, including Democrats.

Even though Cayetano is a Democrat, he does best among voters who disapprove of the country’s leading Democrat, President Barack Obama.

Of those who approve strongly of Obama’s job performance, 44 percent back Cayetano for mayor, versus 25 percent for Caldwell and 24 percent for Carlisle. For those who somewhat approve of Obama, the split goes to 52 percent for Cayetano, 25 percent for Carlisle and 12 percent for Caldwell. For those who somewhat disapprove of Obama’s work, the mayoral breakdown is 60 percent for Cayetano, 21 percent for Carlisle and 8 percent for Caldwell. And of those who disapprove of Obama’s performance strongly, Cayetano pulls in 76 percent of the support versus 13 percent for Carlisle and 5 percent for Caldwell.

Cayetano also leads in every education category, from no diploma to graduate degree, and has a majority in every breakdown of household income, from $50,000 or less to more than $100,000.

The former governor also has a majority of support from those who live in the rail corridor², 52 percent, and those who don’t, 55 percent.

Finally, it’s important to remember that this poll is a snapshot in time. It doesn’t mean that Cayetano, despite his obvious advantages today, is going to be mayor. We haven’t yet seen the campaign that will be waged against him, or how his campaign will stand up over time.

One thing that is likely is that his opponents on the issue of rail, not necessarily Carlisle or Caldwell, will make their own case with the public for the project — and against Cayetano.

Cayetano angered many as governor, including members of labor unions that supported him. And it’s possible that the thousands of voters who’ve been added to the rolls since he left office will be reminded of how some felt about the man they never knew as a public servant.