Opposition to Appointed BOE Grew in Final Days
Those opposed to the appointed Board of Education amendment had momentum on their side in the final days of the election, but it was too little, too late.
Analysis of the election results shows there was a lower proportion of “yes” votes on election day — 54.8 percent — than during absentee voting, when 61.1 percent of voters favored the constitutional amendment.
Appointed BOE Vote Results
| Yes | No | Blank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absentee | 61.1% | 34.2% | 4.8% |
| Election Day | 54.8% | 40.6% | 4.6% |
| Total | 57.4% | 37.8% | 4.7% |
Source: Civil Beat analysis of election results
Mail-in ballots were sent to voters in mid-October and were due back by the close of polls at 6 p.m. Tuesday. Walk-in early voting was available at limited locations in each county from Oct. 19 through Oct. 30.
One theory is that ballot initiatives generally draw less support on election day. Those who haven’t made up their minds tend to stick with the status quo, the idea goes. But other ballot initiatives saw little difference between absentee and election day results, shooting a hole in that theory.
The Honolulu City Charter amendment to establish a rail transit authority had 68.59 percent “yes” votes in absentee voting and 68.66 percent on election day. The other state constitutional amendment related to tax rebates got 64.3 percent “yes” votes in absentee and 65.5 on election day.1
Civil Beat analyzed the results in a number of other races — for governor, U.S. Senate and both U.S. House positions — and found that none of them shifted between absentee voting and election day, a phenomenon we explored after Panos Prevedouros showed major gains on Peter Carlisle in the final days leading up to the special mayoral election in September.
Winning Candidates’ Vote Percentages
| Candidate | Absentee | Election Day |
|---|---|---|
| Neil Abercrombie | 58.8% | 58.5% |
| Daniel K. Inouye | 78.2% | 77.2% |
| Colleen Hanabusa | 53.8% | 52.7% |
| Mazie Hirono | 74.6% | 73.7% |
Source: Civil Beat analysis of election results
Another theory that didn’t apply in the Board of Education amendment vote was the idea that less knowledgable or less passionate voters would lead to more blanks on election day. The results were basically a wash, even leaning a bit in the other direction. This means that the shift was not due to a gap in enthusiasm but rather a difference in philosophy — election day voters chose to fill out the “no” bubble more often than absentee voters did.
There’s no simple explanation for why that happened, but it’s possible that a late ad buy from the Hawaii State Teachers Association opposing the measure could have changed some minds.
A pro-appointed-board group called Hawaii’s Children First raised more than $500,000 this year and starting running “Vote YES” spots dating back to the primary. The HSTA had been relying on grassroots, word-of-mouth efforts to encourage “no” votes until it spent about $68,000 on TV and radio commercials. The purchase was made on Oct. 5, according to a . The ads ran during the rest of October and up to the election.
Below are the two TV spots, courtesy of the . The radio ads are available on the site as well.
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Parent — Patricia Ulloa-Curcio, children graduated from Kapolei High School. Mrs. Curcio is still involved as a School Community Council member.
Teacher — Jodi Maeda, Kauai Chapter President
