Hanabusa Captured Case Voters to Win 1st Congressional District
Colleen Hanabusa turned a special election loss at the hands of Charles Djou into a general election victory in less than six months. She did it by winning over Ed Case supporters to claim regions that Djou controlled in May.
Civil Beat’s geographical analysis of the 1st Congressional District election results shows where Hanabusa made her gains as she turned a 19-7 Republican advantage into a 20-6 edge of her own in Hawaii House districts won.
The following chart is sorted from highest Hanabusa percentage to lowest.
District-by-District Results in the Congress Election
| District | Region | Hanabusa | Djou |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Moiliili, McCully, Kaimuki | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| 20 | St. Louis, Palolo, Wilhelmina Rise | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 24 | Manoa, Manoa Valley, University | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 29 | Sand Island, Mokauea, Kapalama | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 30 | Kalihi Valley, Fort Shafter | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 35 | Pearl City, Waipahu | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 26 | Pacific Heights, Pauoa, Punchbowl | 57% | 43% |
| 36 | Pearl City, Momilani, Pacific Palisades | 57% | 43% |
| 34 | Newtown, Waiau, Pearl City, Waimalu | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 25 | Tantalus, Makiki, McCully | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 21 | Kaimuki, Waikiki, Diamond Head | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 27 | Nuuanu, Puunui, Liliha, Alewa Heights | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 33 | Aiea, Halawa, Aiea Heights | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 31 | Moanalua Valley, Moanalua, Salt Lake | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 42 | Waipahu, Honouliuli, West Loch, Ewa | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 32 | Pearlridge, Aiea, Pearl Harbor | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 37 | Mililani, Waipio Gentry | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 41 | Waipahu, Village Park, Waikele | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| 28 | Palama, Downtown, Chinatown | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| 23 | Waikiki, Ala Moana | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 38 | Mililani, Mililani Mauka | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 19 | Waialae, Diamond Head, Kahala | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 18 | Niu Valley, Aina Haina, Kahala | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| 17 | Kalama Valley, Hawaii Kai | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 43 | Ewa Beach, Iroquois Point, Puuloa | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| 39 | Wahiawa, Whitmore Village, Poamoho | 45% | 55% |
Source: Civil Beat analysis of election results
Two days after the special election in May, the Honolulu Advertiser published a story showing that Djou’s of East Honolulu, his hometown and a historic Republican enclave.
Since then, the tables have turned. Hanabusa made gains on Djou in every single state House district — all but five of which were in double digits. The most dramatic gains were made in areas formerly part of Case country.
Case won just one state House district — Manoa’s No. 24, with 38.4 percent of the vote. Hanabusa turned a 32.7 to 28.9 deficit against Djou in Manoa in May into a 59.8 to 40.2 win there in November. Next door, in District 25, Case took 33.7 percent of the vote. Hanabusa turned an eight-point loss into a 13-point win.
Civil Beat looked at the areas where Case performed well — the places where the highest proportion of voters was up for grabs Tuesday. We looked at the difference between Djou’s margin over Hanabusa in May and at Hanabusa’s margin of victory Tuesday in each of those districts.
The following chart is sorted from highest Case percentage to lowest. It shows that areas where Case did well provided Hanabusa with large gains against Djou between May and November, as was indicated by the first Civil Beat general election poll conducted on Oct. 11. The “rank” column compares the size of the gains from district to district.
District-by-District: What Happened to the Case Vote
| District | Region | Case % | Case Rank |
Hanabusa Gains | Gains Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Manoa, Manoa Valley, University | 38.4% | 1 | 23.4% | 1 |
| 25 | Tantalus, Makiki, McCully | 33.7% | 2 | 21.0% | 4 |
| 20 | St. Louis, Palolo, Wilhelmina Rise | 30.9% | 3 | 19.3% | 5 |
| 19 | Waialae, Diamond Head, Kahala | 30.7% | 4 | 16.4% | 8 |
| 21 | Kaimuki, Waikiki, Diamond Head | 30.0% | 5 | 21.7% | 3 |
| 23 | Waikiki, Ala Moana | 29.8% | 6 | 22.3% | 2 |
| 26 | Pacific Heights, Pauoa, Punchbowl | 28.9% | 7 | 18.1% | 6 |
| 28 | Palama, Downtown, Chinatown | 28.7% | 8 | 13.3% | 15 |
| 18 | Niu Valley, Aina Haina, Kahala | 28.5% | 9 | 15.1% | 10 |
| 22 | Moiliili, McCully, Kaimuki | 28.2% | 10 | 15.5% | 9 |
| 27 | Nuuanu, Puunui, Liliha, Alewa Heights | 27.8% | 11 | 12.2% | 17 |
| 31 | Moanalua Valley, Moanalua, Salt Lake | 27.8% | 12 | 11.9% | 18 |
| 35 | Pearl City, Waipahu | 27.6% | 13 | 8.6% | 26 |
| 33 | Aiea, Halawa, Aiea Heights | 27.4% | 14 | 13.4% | 14 |
| 34 | Newtown, Waiau, Pearl City, Waimalu | 27.2% | 15 | 14.9% | 11 |
| 17 | Kalama Valley, Hawaii Kai | 27.0% | 16 | 17.5% | 7 |
| 36 | Pearl City, Momilani, Pacific Palisades | 26.4% | 17 | 12.5% | 16 |
| 41 | Waipahu, Village Park, Waikele | 26.2% | 18 | 9.7% | 22 |
| 38 | Mililani, Mililani Mauka | 26.2% | 19 | 13.8% | 13 |
| 32 | Pearlridge, Aiea, Pearl Harbor | 26.0% | 20 | 11.8% | 20 |
| 30 | Kalihi Valley, Fort Shafter | 25.8% | 21 | 11.6% | 21 |
| 29 | Sand Island, Mokauea, Kapalama | 25.5% | 22 | 9.1% | 25 |
| 37 | Mililani, Waipio Gentry | 25.1% | 23 | 14.0% | 12 |
| 42 | Waipahu, Honouliuli, West Loch, Ewa | 24.5% | 24 | 9.5% | 24 |
| 39 | Wahiawa, Whitmore Village, Poamoho | 24.4% | 25 | 9.6% | 23 |
| 43 | Ewa Beach, Iroquois Point, Puuloa | 22.6% | 26 | 11.9% | 19 |
Source: Civil Beat analysis of election results
House District numbers can be seen on this map. They are the black numbers not inside a box. The numbers inside boxes are Senate districts. The pink numbers are U.S. congressional districts.
Source: Hawaii Office of Elections
