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The general election on the mainland is shaping up to be a referendum on President Obama and the Democratic-controlled Congress — and it’s not looking pretty for either.

But in Hawaii, the president remains popular, with a 62-percent approval rating, according to the latest Civil Beat poll. Fifty-seven percent of Hawaii voters feel positive about the direction of the country, nearly double the percent who feel that way nationally.

The election Tuesday will tell us whether the wave of change on the mainland is strong enough to wash over the islands, or whether the dominance of the Democratic Party here is so strong that it can retake the governor’s office and 1st Congressional District seat, even in a terrible year for Democratic candidates nationally.

Governor

Democrat Neil Abercrombie, a 72-year-old with a long record in Congress, the state House and Senate and on the Honolulu City Council, is running as an agent of change. A Civil Beat poll indicates he’s going to be successful. Lt. Gov. James “Duke” Aiona has cast Abercrombie as a spendthrift who’s out of touch with Hawaii, but he’s got his own baggage from his 8-year partnership with Gov. Linda Lingle. The outcome will determine whether Republicans can retain their hold on the executive branch, or whether the Democrats will once again run both chambers of the Legislature and the governor’s office.

Congress

Sen. Daniel K. Inouye and Congresswoman Mazie Hirono are not suffering any of the pain of their mainland colleagues. But in the 1st Congressional District, Republican Charles Djou has cast his Democratic opponent, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, as a rubber stamp for her party’s big-spending leaders. Hanabusa, on the other hand, has run as a leader in touch with Hawaii values, and painted Djou as an obstructionist who just says “No.” Djou defeated Hanabusa in the May special election to fill the seat vacated by Abercrombie when he quit to run for governor. The loss was blamed by Democrats on the fact that she split the party’s vote with former Congressman Ed Case, who came in third. We’ll learn Tuesday whether that was correct. If Hanabusa wins, it’s quite likely Hawaii will be one of the few states where Democrats take back a seat in the U.S. House from Republicans.

Legislature

This is where the Democratic dominance of Hawaii politics is most clear. They hold 23 of the 25 seats in the Senate and 46 of 51 in the House. While the Republicans managed to field candidates in most legislative races this year, the mix is not expected to change significantly. If Hanabusa wins, the Senate will be looking for a new leader.

Constitutional Amendment

Education reform has been a central issue in the governor’s race. But where voters will have their most direct say is when they decide whether to replace an elected board of education with one appointed by the governor. Both governor candidates support the measure. A Civil Beat poll indicates it has a good likelihood of passing, even though data doesn’t indicate any correlation between an appointed board and higher student achievement. Similar constitutional amendments failed in 1970 and 1994. If it’s approved this time, you can thank the Furlough Fridays debacle and the more than half million dollars that’s been spent to promote the idea. Voters will also decide on an amendment that flew below the radar regarding what the Legislature can do with revenue surpluses. Sounds like an unlikely scenario in today’s economy, but it’s happened before.

City Charter

Voters will decide whether to create a public transit authority to plan, construct, operate, maintain and expand the city’s proposed $5.5 billion rail project. No matter what they decide, the project will continue to move forward. They’ll also decide on whether to restore an Office of Housing, an idea opposed by new Mayor Peter Carlisle.

City Council

Big money is being thrown around to win the seat in the most affluent part of town, East Honolulu’s District 4, with Rich Turbin and Stanley Chang raising nearly $620,000 between them for a job that pays $52,446 a year. Districts 2 and 6 are also up for grabs. There’s one more election to come, this time for the seat held by Council Chairman Todd Apo, who’s resigning.

Board of Education

Thirteen candidates are running for six seats on the 13-person board. The winners might serve only for a few months, if voters eliminate the very offices they’re seeking.

Bottom Line

All eyes will be on the governor’s and 1st Congressional District races, the results of which will tell whether a new generation of Republican leaders has emerged or whether Democrats in Hawaii withstood a national political wave.

Voting Questions

Polling places are open from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. Tuesday. If you don’t know where to vote, here’s .

On Election Night

Get live updates, results and analysis on Civil Beat.