Civil Beat Poll: Voters Lining Up Behind Appointed Ed Board
Current Board of Education members might want to prepare to say their goodbyes.
A new Civil Beat poll of 1,181 likely voters found 60.6 percent support a constitutional amendment on the Nov. 2 ballot that would replace the elected board with one appointed by the governor. The measure was opposed by 31.3 percent of voters, with a total of 8 percent either not voting or unsure how they’ll vote. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
The reason the 8 percent number is so critical is that even if a majority of those who cast a vote on the amendment support it, it could still go down to defeat because unmarked ballots are counted as “No” votes.
“While other races have remained static, support for the ballot question showed strong positive movement and even a trace of bipartisan support, as both gubernatorial candidates have endorsed the idea,” said Matt Fitch, executive director of the (MRG). Aloha Vote, a Hawaii subsidiary of the Connecticut research firm, conducted the automated telephone survey on Oct. 23.
A Civil Beat poll by the same organization two weeks earlier found that 54.2 percent favored the amendment, with 35.6 percent opposed and 10.2 percent saying that they either wouldn’t vote on the issue or were unsure how they’d vote.
Since then, the topic has come up repeatedly in debates. It was in the news when Democratic governor candidate Neil Abercrombie appeared to flip flop, first opposing the amendment and then telling reporters that he had voted for it. The Hawaii State Teachers Association, which supports Abercrombie, opposes the amendment.
Voters view the amendment essentially the same way in Hawaii’s two Congressional districts. In the 1st Congressional District, 62.2 percent are for it and 30.2 percent against. In the 2nd Congressional District, it’s 59.0 vs. 32.5.
The findings of the survey, the essentially 60-30 split, are remarkably consistent. For example, 60.7 percent of women support it and 63.2 percent of men back it. People who have a positive view of the direction of the state and people who have a negative view feel the same way about the amendment, with 60.9 percent of both groups supporting it. Asians, whites and Pacific Islanders support it roughly 60-30.
