Civil Beat Poll: Majority of Voters Back Appointed Board of Education
Amending the Constitution is no easy task. But a new Civil Beat poll found that Hawaii voters are on track to do just that when it comes to the state board of education.
An amendment that would replace the elected board with one appointed by the governor has the support of 54.2 percent of likely voters, according to the automated telephone poll. The survey of 1,151 likely voters was conducted Oct. 11 by Aloha Vote, a Hawaii subsidiary of (MRG), a Connecticut research organization. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percent.
“It’s going to be close,” said Seth Rosenthal, Merriman’s polling director. “It’s 54 percent for, but because of the way it’s structured in Hawaii, if you don’t vote on it, it’s a ‘No.’ It’s going to be a close call.”
Merriman’s executive director, Matt Fitch, concurred that the outcome is still in doubt, but said the lower turnout of a non-presidential year makes it more likely that it will pass.
“In a year with a big turnout with a lot of first-time voters, they’re more likely to miss it,” he said.
The poll found 35.6 percent opposed, with 6.8 percent unsure and 3.4 percent saying they’re not going to vote on the issue. A ballot that is unmarked on the issue is counted as a “No” vote under Hawaii law.
“What comes through most clearly is that it’s a conservative issue,” Rosenthal said. “Conservatives are the strongest group in favor of it. Liberals are also in favor but not nearly as strongly.”
Respondents who identified themselves as Republicans supported the amendment 62 percent vs. 28 percent opposed. Democrats split 47 percent for and 44 percent against. Independents mirrored Republicans, at 63-29. As did those who identified themselves as members of the Tea Party, 63-28.
Given how low under the radar this amendment is flying, with high-profile governor and 1st Congressional District races dominating the November 2 ballot, Civil Beat explained to voters the arguments of supporters and opponents of the amendment before asking their position.
“Supporters of the amendment argue that Hawaii鈥檚 education system needs to be reformed because currently, no one is directly accountable for education in Hawaii,” the caller said. “By allowing the Governor to appoint Board members, the Governor can be held directly accountable for educational policy. On the other hand, opponents of the amendment argue that an elected board better represents the opinions of the state鈥檚 residents, and that the board should remain directly accountable to the people of the state.”
The survey found that Aiona supporters backed the amendment by a 2-1 margin, while it was much closer among Abercrombie backers, a 5-4 margin. That spread was consistent in the 1st Congressional District contest, with even stronger support among supporters of Charles Djou and slightly weaker support among Hanabusa supporters than among Abercrombie supporters.
The highest-profile campaign in support of the amendment is being led by grassroots organization . The group, led by three former Democratic governors, has raised , according to campaign expenditure reports. At least $100,000 of that came from Bill Reeves, co-founder of , a Hawaii nonprofit. The Pacific Resource Partnership, a lobbying group for the Hawaii Carpenters Union, has also contributed at least $27,000 in advertising to the cause.
Children First has been airing television commercials since before the primary election to remind voters that a blank ballot on Nov. 2 will be counted as a vote against an appointed board. It has also run at least one quarter-page ad in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.
