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‘Tis the season for economic forecasts.

As we head into the fourth quarter, the usual suspects — local and national — have come out with predictions for the end of the year and beyond. And it isn’t looking pretty.

Most economists say they don’t expect a full recovery any time soon. They’ve upped the odds of a double-dip recession.

The and economists at the University of Hawaii say the recovery is losing steam. This week, another economic think tank lowered its already dismal outlook. And yet, Hawaii’s Council on Revenues maintains its very rosy outlook for the upcoming fiscal year, predicting double-digit growth in state tax revenues.

The Council on Revenues, an advisory group of appointed economists and academics, is the go-to economic authority for the state. By law, legislators have to use its quarterly forecasts to decide the state’s budget.

We’ve already critiqued the council’s work, pointing out that its predictions are rarely on target. (In three of the last five years, the council made initial forecasts that overestimated how much the state’s tax revenues would grow by nearly double.)

Here’s a side-by-side comparison to highlight the disconnect between what the Council on Revenues is forecasting and what other economists are seeing. You be the judge.

UHERO

Start of recovery

The most by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization describes a sputtering recovery for Hawaii that won’t gain strength until about 2015. “While we do not expect a double-dip recession, growth will remain anemic through 2011 before some strengthening builds,” UHERO’s report said.

Revenue, spending

“The relatively slow pace of recovery will pose challenges in the form of lagging tax receipts … Consumer spending is lackluster.”

Jobs

Hawaii’s unemployment rate isn’t going down anytime soon, UHERO predicts. It’s expected to average 6 percent in 2011. “Few non-tourism industries have shown much job creation.”

Tid bits

• “Expansion will be at a restrained pace through 2011.”
• “Slowing global recovery means visitor gains will be harder to come by.”
• “Construction remains in the doldrums.”
• “Growth will remain anemic.”

National Association for Business Economics

Start of recovery

The panel of 46 economists its projections on economic growth, saying it expects gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, to grow at a pace of 2.6 percent in both 2010 and 2011, down from its previous prediction of 3.2 percent.

Revenue, spending

“Consumer spending is expected to remain modest due to weak job gains, persistently high unemployment, and negligible growth in household net worth reflecting only small gains in the stock market and home prices.”

Jobs

NABE says the unemployment rate will increase to 9.7 percent this year, then fall to 9.2 percent by the end of 2011. (It’s currently at 9.6 percent.)

Tid bits

• “Severe wealth losses and onerous debt burdens inhibit spending and lending.”
• “This summer’s slowdown has exposed the economy’s sensitivity to wealth losses, the unwinding of debt.”
• This year’s holiday retail sales will be “especially weak,” rising only 2.5 percent from last year.

The Fed

While the Fed doesn’t put out detailed forecasts, here’s a look at some recent comments by its chairman, Ben Bernanke, the nation’s top monetary policymaker.

Tid bits

• “Our public finances are on an unsustainable path in the longer term.”
• “The pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near-term.”
• “There are numerous signs of weakness in the economy.”
• “The Fed is seeing widespread signs of deceleration” of economic activity.
• The government lowered its reading of economic activity to an annualized growth rate of 1.6 percent, down from the 2.4 percent previously estimated.

Council on Revenues

Revenue, spending

Its estimates Hawaii state revenues will see 10 percent growth next fiscal year, which starts July 2011, followed by five years of annual 6 percent growth. (To put the 10-percent growth estimate in context, 1 percentage point translates into about $46 million.)

Jobs

“Job growth across the country has been uneven, and while it is a ‘noisy’ data set in Hawaii, the monthly change in Hawaii payroll employment has most recently displayed comparatively sustainable growth.”

Tid bits

• “The Council’s expectation of steady, moderate recovery in economic activity translating into renewed General Fund revenue growth … should restore the general fund to an economically sustainable trajectory.”
• “Hawaii seems to have retained its distinction for economic performance at or above the national average.”
• “A surge in domestic travel and tourism … has provided the most reassuring evidence of ongoing economic recovery.”
• “Housing and real estate markets have a much more stable feel in Hawaii.”

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We’ve seen the impact the council’s optimistic outlooks have had in the past, where the state was left scrambling to adjust.

What do you think about the disconnect between what the Council on Revenues has forecast and what other economists are seeing?