Civil Beat Poll: Carlisle Has Edge in Mayoral Race
Former prosecutor Peter Carlisle has the advantage in the contest for Honolulu Hale, according to a new Civil Beat poll.
The race has essentially become a two-person contest, with Carlisle at 37 percent and Acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell at 30 percent. UH engineering professor Panos Prevedouros is drawing 20 percent (slightly more than he received in the 2008 election), and City Councilman Rod Tam is barely making a mark, at 2 percent. Ten percent of likely voters in the Sept. 18 election are undecided.
“Caldwell is competitive, but all the intangibles seem to favor Carlisle,” said Matt Fitch, executive director of the Merriman River Group, which conducted the automated telephone poll on Sept. 7 and 8 through its Hawaii subsidiary, Aloha Vote. The poll of 769 likely voters on Oahu has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.
The poll found that the biggest reason for selecting a candidate was personal and professional qualifications, with 40 percent of likely voters saying that was their No. 1 issue. The economy and taxes was second, at 24 percent, essentially tied with rail at 22 percent.
The strength of support for Caldwell and Carlisle on qualifications was roughly even, with Caldwell slightly ahead, 56 percent to 52 percent, and Prevedouros at 25 percent.
Carlisle was stronger on the economy, with 29 percent, vs. 20 for Caldwell and 15 for Prevedouros.
Of Prevedouros’ supporters, 61 percent chose rail as their most important issue, compared with only 15 percent of Caldwell鈥檚 supporters and 7 percent of Carlisle鈥檚 supporters. Prevedouros is a staunch opponent of rail who has said he will kill the project.
One interesting dimension of the results is that supporters of Neil Abercrombie for the Democratic nomination for governor are backing Carlisle, 42-29, with Prevedouros getting 20 percent. Carlisle is a former Republican who has the backing of Republicans in the election, while Abercrombie is opposed by Republicans but dominates his opponent, former Mayor Mufi Hannemann, when it comes to liberals and Democrats, according to an analysis of the poll. Supporters of Hannemann split 47-33 for Caldwell, his former managing director who became acting mayor when Hannemann stepped down to run for governor on July 20.
The problem for Prevedouros, said Fitch, is that some supporters of the third candidate tend to drop when people get closer to voting and they realize that their candidate is not going to win.
Given that Prevedouros supporters also seem to be conservative and less committed to their choice, he said, there’s “a decent chance they’ll go to Carlisle.”
The poll shows Carlisle with a big lead among women, 42-29, while among men it’s a dead heat, 31-31.
Caldwell gets Democrats, 43-32, but Carlisle dominates when it comes to Independents, 43-20, and does even better among Republicans, 46-14. The Democratic slant for Caldwell is reinforced by the fact that twice as many of his supporters strongly approve of President Obama’s job performance compared to Caldwell鈥檚 supporters. In constrast, a full 41 percent of Prevedouros of backers strongly disapprove of Obama.
Prevedouros is not getting Democratic support. Just 13 percent of Democrats back him. But he’s doing better among Independents, 29 percent, and Republicans, 26 percent.
The Civil Beat poll comes about a month after the , conducted by Hawaii News Now and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. That showed Carlisle with a wider margin, but much can change in a month, a month in which Caldwell has been able to use his position as acting mayor to build public awareness, along with a TV ad campaign. The earlier poll found 49 percent support for Carlisle, 25 percent for Caldwell, 11 percent for Prevedouros and 4 percent for Tam. The number of undecideds was about the same as Civil Beat found.
What would be best for Caldwell would be low turnout, said Fitch. “A low turnout and he could pull an upset.”
The reason, he said, is that voters who went to the polls in a low turnout election would be “hard-core Democrats.” The winner-take-all mayoral election is occurring the same day as the primary election, with a hard-fought governor’s race on the Democratic side.
