Abercrombie: Election Will Be Won on Neighbor Islands
It’s a fact that 70 percent of Hawaii’s population lives on the island of Oahu. But can the neighbor islands swing the vote for a candidate?
In an interview with the on June 12, 2010, gubernatorial candidate Neil Abercrombie said, “I believe the nomination will be won on the neighbor islands.” (See Part 2 of the video, 13:07) Was Abercrombie pandering to neighbor island audiences when he said their votes mattered most?
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By necessity, the governor of Hawaii lives and works in Honolulu. Neighbor island residents often say that the governor is too “Honolulu-centric” as a result.
To evaluate the impact of the neighbor island vote, Civil Beat looked at results from the past three gubernatorial primary and general elections, posted on the website.
Primary Elections
Democratic Party
| Year | Hawaii County | Maui County | Kauai County | Honolulu County | Total | Neighbor Island Vote Percentage | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 16,218 | 10,816 | 6,136 | 85,888 | 119,058 | 27.9 percent | Iwase |
| 2002 | 11,052 | 7,828 | 6,584 | 51,245 | 76,709 | 33.2 percent | Hirono |
| 1998 | 13,918 | 12,883 | 9,614 | 59,382 | 95,797 | 38.0 percent | Cayetano |
Republican Party
| Year | Hawaii County | Maui County | Kauai County | Honolulu County | Total | Neighbor Island Vote Percentage | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 3,783 | 3,535 | 1,663 | 22,294 | 31,275 | 28.7 percent | Lingle |
| 2002 | 8,636 | 8,079 | 3,250 | 50,843 | 70,808 | 28.2 percent | Lingle |
| 1998 | 14,567 | 8,607 | 5,353 | 80,534 | 109,061 | 26.2 percent | Lingle |
General Elections
| Year | Hawaii County | Maui County | Kauai County | Honolulu County | Total | Neighbor Island Vote Percentage | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 27,438 | 21,773 | 10,814 | 155,288 | 215,313 | 27.9 percent | Lingle |
| 2002 | 25,530 | 20,738 | 9,426 | 141,315 | 197,009 | 28.3 percent | Lingle |
| 1998 | 23,826 | 20,777 | 13,764 | 145,839 | 204,206 | 28.6 percent | Cayetano |
Neighbor island residents cast an average of 30.4 percent of all votes in the 2006, 2002 and 1998 gubernatorial primary elections. In the past three gubernatorial general elections, the neighbor island vote averaged 28.3 percent.
What the numbers tell us is that in a close election, a candidate can’t afford to lose the neighbor islands. If two candidates are splitting the vote in Honolulu, winning the neighbor islands is crucial.
Sure, Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, the state’s most powerful politician, could have won an election outright without the neighbor islands. In 2004, he won the primary with 89 percent of the state, and in the general that year he had 73 percent of the vote on Oahu. But it’s unrealistic for most other candidates.
