What the Campaign Finance Reports Tell Us
A few observations about what the latest financial disclosure reports tell us about the political horse races.
On the Governor’s Race
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It’s good to be mayor. And although no Honolulu mayor has ever won the Hawaii governor’s office, it sure looks like Mufi Hannemann is well-positioned to be the first. He was sitting on $2 million 78 days before the Sept. 18 primary election, while his rival, Neil Abercrombie, had only one-sixth that amount — $342,000 — to play with. They’re running about even as fundraisers, so it looks like Hannemann will have a huge advantage when it comes to buying TV time.
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No wonder it doesn’t seem like Hannemann is in any rush to engage directly with Abercrombie. Why would he? When you’ve got the edge, why give the other guy any room to make a mark? While there’s no smoking gun that Hannemann is squelching opportunities for debates, the Abercrombie side is clearly frustrated that they can’t get the two candidates together in front of TV more often.
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Abercrombie has spent nearly twice as much as Hannemann so far. Either his early investment – he quit Congress to run for governor on Feb. 28 while Hannemann didn’t step down as mayor until July 20 — is going to be what puts him over the top or he’s going to regret being at such a financial disadvantage when it comes to buying advertising when voters are making up their minds. He better have a great ground game, because he’s not going to be able to compete on the air.
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Abercrombie likes to claim he has grassroots support. One thing that does stand out on his report to support that claim: In the past six months, he received more than four times as much as Hannemann in contributions of $100 or less, $69,774 versus $15,986. For the entire election period, he’s brought in five times as much in small donations: $125,740 versus $25,763. But it’s the Republican candidate, Lt. Gov. James Duke Aiona, who’s on top when it comes to small donors. He brought in $72,127 in the past six months and $310,998 so far.
Road to Honolulu Hale
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It’s good to be the mayor’s No. 2. Acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell has raised $530,124 versus $290,266 for the other leading candidate, former prosecutor Peter Carlisle.
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It’s also good to have had years of experience as a private lawyer. While Carlisle has won four citywide elections as prosecutor, Caldwell had enough money to lend his campaign $50,000. Without the boost from that loan, the two would be sitting on about the same amount of cash.
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Show him the money. For all you anti-rail folks out there, it’s got to be discouraging to see how little money Panos Prevedouros has raised. He’s the only candidate who doesn’t support the project, and in this rare instance he doesn’t need a majority to win. The special election is a winner-take-all contest. But it’s hard to imagine how he can build name recognition and support with the little cash he’s raised.
