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Economists say the worst is over. But is that really true?

To find out, one dry, summer morning, I took to Kapahulu Avenue, a hot and busy four-lane vein connecting the university community to the teeming shores of Waikiki.
Theoretically, the economy is getting better. Many numbers point up: U.S. and Hawaii GDP are improving, as are local and national employment rates. Tourists are coming back, too.

“The recession is almost over,” Paul Brewbaker, a leading local economist, recently told Civil Beat. “But people are generally reluctant to accept the indications of economic improvement.”

But theory isn’t always reality. Conventional wisdom says that there is often a lag between economic indicators of improvement and the public experiencing it. So, we decided to do some digging. I visited the shops, restaurants and salons on a one-block stretch of Kapahulu between Crane Community Park near the H-1 and Safeway. On one side of the street are a cluster of shops in a faded yellow building, where there is a woodwork gallery, an antique store, a cigarette shop, a watch repair shop and a waxing salon. On the other side is a small strip mall with a spa, a karaoke bar, a boutique, a Chinese restaurant, a plate lunch place and a vacant retail space. Next to it sits the iconic Leonard’s Bakery drive-in and a pair of new shops – a smoke shop and an unopened restaurant with tall glass windows and polished wood doors.

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I asked a simple question at each place: How has business fared these past weeks and months?

We found that, with a few exceptions, people are struggling.

Five stores are still feeling the downturn, watching their numbers fall short of expectations. Two are stable with nominal growth. Two had no time to talk. One, a seemingly invincible bong shop, is still growing in sales.

The small chunk of Kapahulu offers only a slice of a much bigger picture, which we know is a messy mass of individuals, circumstances and sometimes exceptions – something economists aggregate much more succinctly with a set of numbers. Even at a time of prosperity there are groups that soar and groups that stumble.

Still, the individual stories point to an economy that is not yet picking up steam – at least not on one block of Kapahulu. They illuminate a discrepancy between what economists say and what merchants experience. Or, perhaps, best case, the economists’ numbers foreshadow growth yet to come on one block of Kapahulu.

Here are some of their stories.

• Worries about Europe
• ‘It’s getting better, better, better’
• ‘Not too good, not too bad’
• We just don’t make money’
• ‘Really slow’
• Hair dryers roaring
• ‘I don’t think the recession has ever hit us’
• ‘We’re just getting by’
• Malasadas mean business