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Honolulu’s proposed rail system retains more than 50 percent support, according to a new Civil Beat poll.

Despite controversy over the rail line’s cost, route and technology, opinions appear to be essentially unchanged since the 2008 election, when Oahu voters decided 53-47 ¹ to authorize the use of steel-on-steel technology to build the rail project. The Legislature and City Council had already approved a 0.5-percent surcharge to the General Excise Tax to pay for the project.

The automated-telephone poll of 1,081 likely voters in the 1st Congressional District found that 27.7 percent strongly approve of the project and 23.9 somewhat approve of it. Opposition stands at 43.8 percent, with 28.9 percent disapproving strongly and 14.9 percent disapproving somewhat. The poll conducted May 6 and 7 by Aloha Vote, a subsidiary of , found that 4.7 percent of likely voters in the district were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The 1st district comprises the bulk of Honolulu, however some of the communities that would be served by the train are in the 2nd Congressional district. Those areas would be expected to show greater support, because people there would experience a direct benefit from the project.

The plan is for the rail line to run from East Kapolei to Ala Moana Center on an elevated track, using steel-on-steel technology. The city is still awaiting state and federal approvals before beginning construction.

“People have strong opinions,” said Matt Fitch, executive director of the Merriman Group. “People have set opinions about the project.”

Support does break down along party lines.

Among Democrats, 61.6 percent approve strongly or somewhat. The figure for Republicans is 36.7 percent.

Opposition among Republicans is running at 59.5 percent, while for Democrats the figure is 33.5 percent. Independents are evenly split, with 49.1 percent in favor and 49.8 percent opposed. But the feelings against the project among independents run more strongly than the feelings in favor. The percent of independents who disapprove strongly is 35.9, while the percent who approve strongly is 23.3.

The poll identified a sizable number of people, nearly 13 percent of the sample, who identified themselves as members of the Tea Party, an anti-big government movement that is shaking up the Republican Party. Among that group, 49.1 percent strongly disapprove of the project and 16.9 percent disapprove, a total of 66.1 percent against.

Asked what message the poll results should deliver to project backers, Fitch said: “Their project is in jeopardy and they have to make a better case for it. They don’t necessarily have the strongest supporter of the project heading to Congress in May,” referring to the poll’s results showing Charles Djou way out in front in the May 22 special election to fill the seat vacated by Neil Abercrombie.

The message to opponents: “Neither side has made up any ground. And people are becoming set in their opinions.”

“People who are against it are overwhelmingly for Djou,” Fitch said. Djou opposed the tax increase for rail, but today has said he’s committed to making the project successful. Of the group that strongly disapproves of the project, 61.5 percent told the survey that they’re voting for Djou. The numbers for his opponents, Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and former Congressman Ed Case, were 11.5 percent and 18.9 percent respectively.

Of those who approve strongly, 36.5 percent support Hanabusa, 29.8 percent Case and 26.1 percent Djou.

“The interesting thing about the rail project is that people have their minds made up,” Fitch said.